2004 Big Ten Football Predictions

In 2003 the Big Ten conference sent eight teams to Bowl games, but we think the league will take a step back this year. The biggest problem we see in making our college football predictions on the Big Ten is that six of the top seven teams will have new quarterbacks under center. With the lack of strong quarterback play, we see the usual suspected of Michigan and Ohio State finding a way to come out on top and decide the conference championship with their annual meeting towards the end of November.

Illinois
Returning Starters
Offense -8 QB-1 WR/TE-2 RB-1 OL-4
Defense- 6 DL-2 LB-1 DB-2 ST-P

2003 ATS record: 1-10
3-year record: 15-20

Trends
1) Visitor in Northwestern game is 12-4 ATS (11/20)
2) Illini 4-16 ATS as home underdog off a SU loss.

Coaching Trend
13-28-1 off a SU loss in Turner’s seven seasons.

This team was just 10-1 three years ago and playing in the Sugar Bowl. However, it seems like they are facing a major talent draught as they don’t have the kind of team speed needed to win in this day and age. There isn’t a simple way to get this team turned around as quickly as they lost it. We see a 3-8 season in the works for 2004.

Indiana
Returning Starters
Offense -10 QB- 1 WR/TE-2 RB-2 OL-5
Defense -9 DL -4 LB -2 DB-3 ST -B

2003 ATS record: 3-8
3-year record 11-20-2

Trends
1)Home team in Minnesota series is 8-2 ATS. (10/30)
2)Hoosiers 3-12 ATS in November road games (11/6 & 11/20)

Coaching Trend
5-11 ATS vs. Big 10

Coach DiNardo starts his third season as head coach at Indiana. He does have the most starters returning (19) of any Big Ten team and for the first time in three years he will have all 85 allowable players on scholarship. The problem is the players he does have are not quite up to par with the rest of the league. The Hoosiers may play better, but will still be a bottom feeder in this league. Do keep an eye out for them though as the experience will help them stay competitive when they are double digit dogs.

Iowa
Returning Starters
Offense -2 QB-0 WR/TE-0 RB-0 OL-2
Defense -7 DL-2 LB-3 DB-2 ST-P

2003 ATS record 10-3
3-year record 26-10-2

Trends
1)17-3 ATS in home games over the last three seasons.
2)The visitor in the Iowa State rivalry is 13-4 ATS (9/11)

Coaching Trend
Coach Ferentz is 16-4 as a home favorite in his five seasons.

There hasn’t been a better coach for football betting than Coach Ferentz. He is 34-14-2 ATS record over his last four seasons at Iowa, making the Hawkeyes a team to take nearly every week. This year more then ever, Iowa will have to rely on defense and fundamentals to get past the first part of the season. A winning record and a bowl game are expected, and if offense comes early, this might be another surprise season for the Hawkeyes.

Michigan
Returning Starters
Offense 7 QB-0 WR/TE-3 RB-1 OL-3
Defense -6 DL-1 LB-2 DB-3 ST-B

2003 ATS Record 9-3
3-year record 19-18-1

Trends
1)Michigan 11-2 ATS when playing in 2nd straight home game (10/2 & 11/13)
2)Wolverines are 13-26 ATS as a favorite between 3.5 – 10 points.

Coaching Trend
Now in his 10th season, Coach Carr is a friendly 13-21-1 ATS away favorite.

The concern for Michigan is in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Talent is seldom the problem, but cohesiveness certainly can be. With multi-talented WR’s and DB’s abound, this Wolverine bunch will once again compete for the Rose Bowl and possibly double digit wins.

Michigan State
Returning Starters
Offense 6 QB-0 WR/TE-3 RB-1 OL-2
Defense -7 DL-1 LB-2 DB-4 ST-B

2003 ATS Record 6-6
3-year record 15-22

Trends
1)Spartans are 17-5 ATS after a road win.
2)Mich. State is 4-12 ATS as HF the last three years.

Coaching Trend
2nd year as coach.

Coach Smith is off a successful first year at State with an 8-5 record. Having to now replace meaningful material on both sides of the ball, will be a difficult task. With roadies at Iowa, Michigan and Penn State this could be a tough trip. He has won at every stop he has made along the coaching trail, but this year looks like a 6-5 or 5-6 campaign.

Minnesota
Offense -7 QB-0 WR/TE-2 RB-1 OL-4
Defense -6 DL-2 LB-2 DB-2 ST- B

2003 ATS Record 7-5
3-year record 16-19

Trends
1)Minny is 10-1 ATS off first loss of the season.
2)The Home team in the Northwestern match-up 0-9 ATS (9/25)

Coaching Trend
8-3 ATS is Mason’s record as an away favorite (Possible-10/30)

Over the years, many have said you can not win at Minnesota. Coach Mason has proven that wrong by posting four winning seasons in the last five years. Posting their first double digit win total since 1905 raises expectations even in land of 10,000 lakes. Minnesota will continue to run the ball with great efficiency, with the play of a new QB and improved defense determining what bowl game they will attend.

Northwestern
Returning Starters
Offense – 9 QB-1 WR/TE-2 RB-1 OL-5
Defense – 9 DL-4 LB-2 DB-3 ST-B

2003 ATS Record 8-4
3-year record 19-17

Trends
1)Northwestern is 25-8 ATS when revenging a loss of 14+ points. (9/25, 10/2 & 10/30)
2)Wildcats are mild cats the week before playing in-state brethren Illinois with a 0-6 SU & ATS (11/13)

Coaching Trend
Nothing much other then 5-2 away underdog.

On paper this looks to be the finest team Northwestern has had since the 2000 season. With a total of nine starters back on each side of the ball this could certainly be a breakout year. A difficult road schedule could be what gets in the way as a trip to TCU and four troublesome Big 10 road games will make matching last year?s .500 season an achievement.

Ohio State
Returning Starters
Offense -5 QB-0 WR/TE-1 RB-1 OL-2
Defense -4 DL-1 LB-1 DB-2 ST-K

2003 ATS Record 4-7-1
3-year record 18-20-1

Trends
1)Buckeyes own the Hawkeyes with 10-1-1 SU & 10-2 ATS when visiting Iowa City. (10/16)
2)Ohio State 6-14 ATS after SU home victory.

Coaching Trend
Conservative Tressel is 3-8 ATS as Away Favorite at Columbus.

This will be a very interesting year to follow Ohio State. With only 9 starters back, Coach Tressel will have to find answers. His team will definitely be in contention for Big Ten title and will likely be a good team to back over the second half of the season as they get some experience.

Penn State
Returning Starters
Offense -6 QB-1 WR/TE-1 RB-1 OL-3
Defense -7 DL-4 LB-1 DB-2 ST- B

2003 ATS Record 3-9
3-year record 18-18

Trends
1)Home team in Michigan State series is 9-2 ATS (11/20)
2)1-36 ATS when they lose at home.

Coaching Trend
Surprisingly 62-64-3 ATS as a home favorite.

We could write a novel on the need for a new head coach for this tired program. It is easy to look back clearly now, but how do you think would fair in the Big East with more natural rivalries? Likely improvement is coming this season, but well below normal expectations at State College. Even more ?Joe Must Go? banners will be seen at home games this year.

Purdue
Offense – 8 QB-1 WR/TE-3 RB-2 OL-3
Defense – 3 DL-1 LB-0 DB-2 ST-0

2003 ATS Record 8-3-1
3-year record 21-15-1

Trends
1)Visitor in Northwestern get together is 10-2 ATS (10/30)
2)Purdue struggles as a RD of 7 or less points with a 3-11 ATS mark.

Coaching Trend
Tiller has two trends of note: 24-11-2 as HF and 3-11-1 as AD.

This year will hearken back to the early years of Coach Tiller’s tenure. With a great defense having graduated all but three starters, the experienced and productive offense will have to carry the load. This squad has serious potential as an underdog because of their ability to score the ball. The Boilermakers’ final record will be bowl material, but we like their backdoor cover potential in several games.

Wisconsin
Returning Starters
Offense -9 QB-0 WR/TE-2 RB-2 OL-5
Defense -8 DL-3 LB-2 DB-3 ST-B

2003 ATS Record 6-7
3-year record 19-19

Trends
1)Wisky is 22-5 as conference dogs of 6 or more under Alverez.
2)Solid passing teams present trouble for Badgers. 5-14 ATS when facing teams that average 250 passing yards per game. (Potential 10/16)

Coaching Trend
Despite quality record at Madison, only 30-32 as HF.

This in our opinion is the thorniest team to figure in this conference. Superior depth on both sides of the ball suggests good things are in store for Barry’s boys. What concerns us is the potential quality of these returning starters. We see only two of these lineman as potential as 1st or 2nd team All-Conference material. We suggest to wait and see on this team who could be 8-3 or 5-6.

Remember to see who Jimmy Boyd is taking each week with his football picks as he takes apart the college football odds to help you make more money.

If you liked this article, you may also be interested in:

• 2009 Utah State NCAA Football Predictions
• 2009 Vanderbilt College Football Predictions
• 2009 San Diego State Football Predictions
• 2009 Akron Football Predictions
• 2009 MAC Football Predictions

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