Florida Marlins Preview
The Marlins are an organization which, to me, makes baseball look bad. They
win a World Series, hold a fire-sail, and then start rebuilding again. This
isn’t conducive of building a good fan base and it has shown. The last time they
did seem to rebuild fairly quickly. They have had back to back seasons hanging
around the .500 mark and losing backers units. But you never know. If they make
the playoffs they seem to be able to win the World Series as their only 2
playoff appearances in franchise history have led to World Series Championships.
I would suspect the Chicago Cubs among others are envious. But the recipe for
success is really quite simple. If you spend the money to get the players, you
win.
It doesn’t look like they’ll be back in a playoff chase this year or any time
soon, especially after losing two of their best pitchers, Josh Beckett, to the
Red Sox and AJ Burnett to the Toronto Bluejays. They also lost their closer in
Todd Jones to the Detroit Tigers, even though last season he gave them 40 saves
an a low 2.10 ERA. Instead they picked up Joe Borowski, who was a solid option
for the Cubs a few years ago but injuries have torn apart the last two years for
him and he is definitely past his prime. The Marlins do still have their ace in
Dontrelle Willis, but I’m not expecting him to repeat the 22 win performance he
had last season. It’s harder to be effective in a staff when you are the solo
act.
The Marlines weren’t bad at the plate in 2005, leading the National League with
a .272 average, but they don’t have half of their big names back and will have
to rely on a bunch of rookies. Miguel Cabrera is back though and will be able to
post MVP like numbers if opposing pitchers pitch to him at all. This guy is as
solid as they come, batting .323 last year with 33 home runs and 116 runs batted
in. Teams should be on the lookout as he will be commanding big money soon
enough and the Marlins won’t be able to keep him.
You can expect Florida to crush left handed pitching and that’s about all.
Although, there numbers could suffer with the losses of several key players.
We’ll have to keep on the lookout in the early going. The Marlins won 22 of 32
games as a road favorite when facing left handed pitching the last 3 years.
Another lesser known trend that you should be on the lookout for is how teams
respond after a loss. Do they rebound well, or does it get them in a rut. If the
Marlins lose by double-digits, they come out the next game playing inspired
ball. In fact, they have won 22 of 34 for a positive 10 unit gain after a
double-digit loss. However, they are minus 11 units coming off a loss and minus
24 units after a win the past 2 seasons. I would expect these stats to vary some
in 2006, but expect the Marlins to once again find some motivation after a big
loss, especially early in the season. They could lose motivation later in the
year if they find themselves too far down in the hole.
If this team gets over the 70 win mark it should be considered a success. There
is no doubt that bettors will be going against Florida heavily this season, so
pick your sports and join them when Willis hits the mound as good value should
present itself.
2006 Baseball Previews
Baseball Picks by
Jimmy Boyd
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