2006 NBA Finals Preview

The NBA Finals are set between the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat. Neither one of these teams have ever reached the NBA Finals before now and they had to get past some major hurdles to do so. The Mavericks were finally able to get past in state and division rival San Antonio, who has been the best in the west for quite some time, with a new focus on defense by coach of the year Avery Johnson and dominant performances by Dirk Nowitzky. And Miami was able to destroy the Pistons in the conference finals with a rejuvenated Shaquille O’Neal, one young star, and veteran role players who at one time basked in the spotlight on their respective teams. As the finals in each conference were unfolding, I was getting a sense that this is the matchup America wanted to see, and now we’ll be able to sit back and enjoy what should be a great series.

How were Dallas and Miami able to get past their respective adversaries in such a short amount of time? My best answer is Cuban and Riley. Cuban has arguably done more for his team than any owner is history and Riley made the ultimate move of instating himself as coach to corral the players he brought it. Both refused to settle, sought change, and it has paid off. The icing on the cake for Cuban had to be defeating two-time MVP Steve Nash in the conference finals. He has been criticized for not matching Phoenix’s offer in light of Nash’s stunning success, but he can be confident now that he made the right move. Many felt it would be impossible for Riley to make roll players out of so many guys who were use to handling the ball the majority of the time with their former teams. But Williams and Payton are a great one-two punch at the point, Walker is the third scorer this team was missing, and Posey provides a great defender with the ability to shoot the three and rebound. Good teams start in the front office at the top of the ladder, and that is why it is no surprise that the Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks have emerged into the elite teams in their respective conferences this season with leaders like Cuban and Riley who appear to be more about winning than dollar signs.

What should we expect in the series?
Expect to see lots of defense, which should make for some low scoring games. Miami didn’t look like they would be able to stop anyone in the opening round of the playoffs when the Bulls were abusing them with the pick and roll. Since then they have defended beautifully with virtually no lapses in the New Jersey series and they took things up another notch against Detroit. It’s no secret that much of the Mavericks’ success stems from Avery Johnson changing the focus of this team to defense from their previously offensive mentality. Teams used to pick on Dirk in the playoffs and now he’s blocking and altering shots on and off the ball as well as gobbling up every rebound around the basket. I do think that if Dallas can involve Shaquille O’Neal in screen and rolls, they will see some success. With Devin Harris handling the ball, he’ll be able to get clear to the basket or draw easy fouls on Shaq as his screen hedges have been sloppy and sometimes he doesn’t even show. Harris really proved his quickness in the San Antonio series when he was able to get free from Tony Parker, who many say is the quickest player in the game. When Jason Terry is in the game running the pick and roll, Miami will have to go over top of the screen to keep him from knocking down easy jumpers, but he still has the quickness to get to the basket. On the other side of the coin, Miami will need to get the ball into Shaq as Dallas doesn’t have the big bodies down low to stop him. If Ben Wallace couldn’t be effective against Shaq, there’s no way that Dampier and Diop will be able to stop the “best 34 year old ever” as Shaq so-called himself in a recent interview.

Both teams are predominantly half court teams, but Jason Williams will push the ball up for easy ones for the Heat and Devin Harris works in much the same way for the Mavs. The series could be decided by which team can get the most easy transition buckets outside of who makes there free throws. Look for both Harris and Williams to be pivotal players.

I should probably say a word about Nowitzky and Wade since they are the poster boys for their franchises. They will do their thing as stars do and as they have throughout the playoffs. I’m sure Dallas will look to trap Wade and double team him when he turns his back to the basket as the Pistons did, which forced him into turnover problems. Miami is going to have some problems with Nowitzky as he is maybe the most efficient player in the game. He is able to kill teams at the foul line and his improved ability to set up his teammates will make Miami think twice about double teaming him, but ultimately they will have no choice.

On paper, this looks like a seven game series all the way, and I hope it is as it gives us more chances to win over the books with our NBA picks. It’s excellent for the league to have some new blood at the top of the totem pole, and I’m looking forward to seeing if Shaq can get his fourth, adding to his legacy, or if Dirk will get his first, solidifying himself as an all-time great in the NBA.