2007 Daytona 500 Predictions

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Get your engines started with our 2007 Daytona 500 predictions! The NASCAR season kicks off this Sunday in the Daytona 500. This may be the first race of the season, but it is the “Super Bowl of Racing.” If the favorite holds up this Sunday, the way it did in Super Bowl 41, Tony Stewart will be taking home his first Daytona 500 title. 42 other drivers will share the track, but in my opinion only Earnhardt Jr., Gordon, and Johnson will be serious contenders. In other words, I’m saying that this Daytona 500 is going to be about the current Mount Rushmore of racing and it’s going to be about the Chevy car.

A Chevy car has taken 19 of the last 22 restrictor plate races so the fact that we have Stewart, Earnhardt Jr., Gordon, and Johnson all in Chevy cars has Chevy looking like a rock yet again. Ford hasn’t been built too tough lately as the last time a Ford crossed the finish line first was when Dale Jarrett did so at Talladega back in 2005. Look for Dodge Cars with Roush, Penske, and Ganassi Racing’s stock to rise, but not as soon as Sunday.

I’m not even going to speculate with names like Kurt Busch and Casey Mears. Busch shows good value at 25/1 odds but he is a demon on the track and doesn’t have enough aces in the hole to help him out. Mears should benefit from his switch to Chevy. Although he finished 2nd and 7th in both races at Daytona last season, adjusting to a new car and new crew chief will likely get him out of the blocks slow this season. He could be an excellent wild card at 22/1 odds but I’m not going to waste my time.

I’m heading straight to the favorite, Tony Stewart, at 4/1 odds. This is obviously not a value bet, but the most educated wager. Stewart nudged Kyle Busch with eight laps to go in last Saturday’s Bud Shootout to win on the same track he’ll be racing on in this Sunday’s Daytona 500. I think this win gives him a great deal of confidence going in and I can easily argue that he is the most hungry elite driver right now. Gordon has been at the top and appears to be more comfortable with collecting big paychecks rather than collecting titles. Earnhardt Jr. has bigger things on his mind. This is always an emotional race as it was the one that took his dad’s life. Couple that with his recent struggle with DEI (Dale Earnhardt Inc.) and I don’t think his head is going to be in this one. Jimmie Johnson is a serious possibility showing slightly better value than Stewart with 5/1 odds. He has won two of the last four NASCAR plate races including last year’s Daytona 500, but I think it’s Stewarts time to finally shine in this race. He has won two of the last three Daytona races so he’s familiar with the track and it has treated him well. I think his often criticized risky driving style will have him hoisting the Harley J. Earl Trophy in Victory Lane this Sunday.

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February 14th, 2007