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Jazz Rockets Series Predictions

Shouldn’t this game be played in the Eastern Conference? You’ll see as much half-court hoops in this one as you would have seen in 1950’s Indiana high school basketball. With Houston getting the home court and with the way the Jazz have struggled down the home stretch, we have to think the Rockets will prevail in this four seed versus five seed matchup.

Forget about the fact that Tracy McGrady is 0-for-5 lifetime in the first round. None of his previous teams have ever been as deep and none of those teams have ever had a 7-foot-6 Yao Ming playing the best basketball of his career on them. So much for those who thought the Rockets were better off without Yao. I doubt they’ll still be thinking that when they see how much trouble Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur have with the big man in this series.

This Houston Rockets team is even better than the one that took the Dallas Mavericks to seven games in the first round in 2005 and I predict they’ll move on in six here. This will be great for Houston and the McGrady/Ming duo, but it will be devastating to a Utah Jazz team which was rolling for three quarters of the season before falling apart late with numerous injuries and a lack of defense.

Utah may have won the season series three-games-to-one, but I’m a firm believer that how a team plays down the stretch can affect its playoff performance. The Jazz lost six of its final nine games while the Rockets won five of their last six to secure home court. The fact that Houston didn’t even have to play when these teams met in the final game of the regular season (McGrady sat out) because it already had home court in the bag was a slap in the face.

Utah needs offensive production out of Kirilenko for the Jazz to be effective, but its just not going to happen while he tries to lock up McGrady. With Shane Battier, Dikembe Mutombo, Luther Head, Chuck Hayes, and Rafer Alston, the Rockets have a solid cast of role players to compliment their stars.

I feel good about the Jazz next season getting out of a first round playoff matchup, but it’s the Rockets’ turn this year.

Updated April 19th, 2007