2007 March Madness Predictions

When making your 2007 March Madness predictions, there are several key factors that you should look for. The first is defense. It is nearly impossible to light it up from the field each game of the tourney so putting your money on the teams who can “D” it up is a safe bet. Georgetown is a team who plays great defense on the perimeter and the interior giving up just 56.1 points per game in a major conference. That’s good for fifth in the nation. Defense is the reason why Tom Izzo’s teams have had so much success at Michigan State and Izzo has his boys at it again this year giving up just 56 points per game. Michigan State is way down in talent and probably won’t make a deep run into the tournament but defense got them a big win over number one ranked Wisconsin earlier this week as the Spartans held the Badgers to just 55 points. Of the top ranked teams in the country defensively, Georgetown gets after it hard and it has the talent to really be a dominant force in the Big Dance. With Hibbert holding down the paint and Jessie Sapp committing theft on the perimeter, Georgetown has great defensive balance. You here a lot about analysts talking about offensive balance, but defensive balance is every bit as important.

The next factor you should consider when making your 2007 March Madness predictions is depth. Despite Duke having two All-American’s last season with Redick and Williams, they had no spark coming off the bench to help pick up the slack if those guys were having an off night or got into foul trouble. North Carolina is a team I look to as having good depth. The Tar Heels have 10 players averaging over 10 minutes per game and none of those 10 average over 30 minutes. The fact that Roy Williams has been able to keep his players’ minutes down all season long will have his boys a lot fresher than most teams in the NCAA Tournament. This will enable his starters to play more minutes in the postseason when it really counts. Most teams do not have this luxury and need their starters on the floor at all times just to put themselves in a position to make the tournament. Also, by having more guys play minutes in the regular season, they will be more suited to help out in key situations in the postseason if coach Williams calls their number.

The third factor that I find very important is experience. We know that this isn’t a given as Carmello Anthony and Gerry McNamara showed in 2003 when they brought home a title for Syracuse. Talent has proven to beat experience on occasion. But when I say experience, I don’t necessarily mean seniors, as having a team of seniors in college in this day and age is highly unlikely with major programs. For example, I think UCLA is a very experienced team and has a great shot at making a Final Four run because of the players it returns and the experience it gained last season getting so deep in the tournament. The Bruins lost Farmar to the pros, but Collison, who is a sophomore, is filling in nicely. The key word there is sophomore as I feel there is a big difference between a sophomore and a freshman. Afflalo is a junior and Shipp is a sophomore. Having key players with big game experience on a team is the easiest way to get the rest of the guys up to speed as they see the confidence that guys like Afflalo and Shipp play with. Wisconsin is another team with a lot of experienced players but it lacks the big game experience that UCLA has.

These are my three most important factors for making your March Madness picks this season and some teams that fit the mold. If you look to defense, depth, and postseason experience, you will be looking in the right direction.

Updated February 23rd, 2007