Mavs Warriors Series Predictions

It’s no secret that Don Nelson knows the ins and outs of Dirk Nowitzki’s game better than any coach on the planet. It’s also true that Nelson’s double-team strategy on Dirk can work and has worked in two regular season matchups as the other Mavericks players have failed to step up.

We can also expect Nellie to give his former team a heavy dose of small ball with the athletic Al Harrington holding down the fort as a 6-foot-8 center. Bring Erick Dampier and Desagana Diop away from the basket and it opens driving lanes for Golden State’s explosive guards. Dallas has made its team into a championship caliber squad on the defensive end, but there is no doubt that pulling these bigger guys out from under the hoops will hurt its defense.

And yes, Nellie has another thing going for him. Big guards have hurt the Dallas Mavericks. We don’t have to look too far back to remember Dwayne Wade’s success against them and big guards don’t get any better than Baron Davis and Jason Richardson. Not only are these guys both 6-foot-4, they were built out of bricks, and they can explode to the hoop.

So, in other words, I’m poking around at the notion that the Golden State Warriors could actually pull off the unthinkable eight versus one upset. The Warriors have won five straight regular season meetings… but I’m a firm believer that the regular season is a far different bird than the playoffs.

I’m not saying the Warriors won’t win a game, because I do think they’ll get one at home, but when Nellie is flocking to Dirk; Josh Howard, Jason Terry, and Jerry Stackhouse will be torching the Warriors defense. After all, it was a lack of defense when Nellie was in Dallas before that kept the Mavs from winning the big one. Dallas has too many weapons for this Warriors team, which I think is just happy to be in the playoffs. And how confident is Dallas? They conceded a win to Golden State just a few days ago, more or less ensuring that They would see the Warriors in the first round instead of the Clippers.

I don’t think we should get out the brooms, but I think we’re looking at the Mavs in five.  If you want game by game analysis against the point spread then you are going to want to pick up a premium package of our NBA picks so we can help you beat the sportsbooks.

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• 2007 Mavs Warriors Game 6 Predictions

Updated April 19th, 2007