2008 Aaron’s 499 Odds
NASCAR Sprint Cup racing took last week off, but it gets back in the saddle this week with the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Super Speedway. Talladega is a monster. We’re talking the biggest most intimidating track on the planet and Jimmy Boyd gives you his take on who you can expect to take the checkered flag this week when he goes inside the Aaron’s 499 odds and predictions.
Because Talladega is such a beast, we can bet on the top drivers having the best shot to win this week. Fan favorite Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the No. 88 car will be making his first start at Talladega with Hendrick Motorsports and his 300th career Cup race. It takes gutsy driving to be successful at Talladega and maybe that’s why Junior has five wins in 16 Cup races on the storied track. During one stretch, from 2001-2004, Junior won 5 of 7 Talladega races and set a track record by winning 4 straight.
As Junior gets ready for his second restrictor plate race of the season, he will be looking for a way to break his 70 race winless streak. He has run very well this season, currently sitting third place in points with all the strong finishes, but I’m not convinced that he is back to that 2001-2004 form yet. If he is able to enter the winner’s circle, he will get one step closer to his dad’s record of 10 wins at Talladega and it will also mark the fifth straight Talladega race to be won by a Hendrick car.
Jeff Gordon swept the two Talladega races last season, and in 2006 Brian Vickers and Jimmie Johnson won. They may not be quite as dominant in plate races as the DEI run I discussed earlier, but from 2004-2007, Hendrick cars have won 9 of 16 plate races.
Clearly Chevrolet has dominated the plate races, especially at Talladega, but here we are one plate race into to 2008 and Hendrick can’t claim it. Ryan Newman’s Dodge took this year’s Daytona 500 if you recall. Despite this occurrence, you are still probably surprised that the favorite to win this week’s race drives a Toyota.
Tony Stewart nor Kyle Busch won the Daytona 500 this year, but they were clearly the two best cars on the track with the slight edge going to Busch. His car had an edge in horsepower and handling.
Stewart has finished second at Talladega six times without winning, tying him with Bobby Allison at Martinsville and Mark Martin at Pocono. Talladega is just one of four current Cup tracks that Stewart has not been able to win on. I look for Stewart to finally break through at Talladega this week. He’ll use his proven strategy of getting near the front at the end of the race and let his new Toyota do the rest. It would be the first win of the season for Stewart in his new car, a win I think is long overdue for as well as he has been maneuvering. A win here would allow him to join Gibbs teammates Kyle Busch and Denny Hammlin as winners on the season. Stewart is traditionally a guy which wins later in the season, but winning here is high on his list after so many close calls.
Top 5 Odds and Predictions:
1. Tony Stewart 6 – 1
2. Kurt Busch 20 – 1
3. Kyle Busch 7 – 1
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr 4 – 1
5. Kevin Harvick 2 – 1
Odds to win Aaron’s 499:
Aric Almirola 100 – 1
Michael Waltrip 100 – 1
Scott Riggs 100 – 1
Reed Sorenson 100 – 1
Juan Pablo Montoya 100 – 1
Brian Vickers 100 – 1
Travis Kvapil 100 – 1
Sam Hornish Jr 100 – 1
JJ Yeley 100 – 1
Robby Gordon 100 – 1
Paul Menard 100 – 1
Elliott Sadler 100 – 1
Bobby Labonte 50 – 1
David Ragan 50 – 1
David Gilliland 40 – 1
Jamie McMurray 40 – 1
Kasey Kahne 30 – 1
Casey Mears 30 – 1
Greg Biffle 25 – 1
Jeff Burton 25 – 1
Matt Kenseth 25 – 1
Ryan Newman 25 – 1
Martin Truex Jr 25 – 1
Carl Edwards 20 – 1
Kurt Busch 20 – 1
Kevin Harvick 20 – 1
Clint Bowyer 20 – 1
Denny Hamlin 12 – 1
Kyle Busch 7 – 1
Tony Stewart 6 – 1
Jimmie Johnson 6 – 1
Jeff Gordon 5 – 1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 4 – 1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50 – 1
