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2008 Centurion Boats at Watkins Glen Predictions

Written by Jimmy Boyd on August 26, 2008

This week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Watkins Glen, New York closes out the 2008 road course season and marks a pivotal point in the “Race for the Chase.” Jimmy Boyd has studied the field and is ready to move forward with his 2008 Centurion Boats at the Glen odds and predictions.

I believe only the best NASCAR drivers have a good shot at winning on the road courses because they are so different from all of the other tracks. What we will likely see this week is drivers like Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne struggling like they always do on the roads, which will hurt their chances, while drivers like Kevin Harvick and Ryan Newman will gain in the “Race for the Chase” because they generally do well on the roads.

For handicapping purposes we have to look at the past success of drivers at both road course tracks. Despite both of the road courses having their own unique characteristics, we have found that drivers who do well on one also excel on the other.

Over the last 11 seasons, Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart have basically won every road course race. Gordon claims nine road course wins and Stewart has posted six. Four of Stewarts six wins have come at Watkins Glen, including one last season when he took advantage of a rare Gordon mishap. Gordon was leading with two laps to go before spinning out of control around turn one to give the win to Stewart.

2008 has been a much different year for Stewart though. At Sonoma, he was never even a factor and I’m beginning to think his mediocre season could result in no wins. When he won at Watkins Glen in 2007, it was his third win in four races, but he has not kicked things in high gear down the stretch the way he has in the past.

Because of Stewart’s struggles, we’ll take a nice long look at Jeff Gordon this week at +450 at Sportsbook.com.

Robby Gordon is another driver who will generate some interest because of his past success in road course races (he swept them both in 2003). The public doesn’t even seem to care that his equipment is far inferior to the top drivers on the circuit as they continue to bet him in these road races. At +1000 at Sportsbook.com, Robby Gordon is clearly overvalued.

Other drivers to look at are Jimmy Johnson and Ryan Newman. Johnson has transformed himself into a respectable road course driver, probably thanks to Jeff Gordon’s help. Because Watkins Glen does not require the drivers to be quite as technical as Sonoma, Johnson will have his best chance to capture a road course win here. Ryan Newman has also proved himself in these races and he is a solid value bet at +4000 at Sportsbook.com. Another notable is Jamie McMurray who is the best on the roads from the Roush stable. He has been given good cars the last two season and is another solid value bet at +3000.

TOP 5 Finish Prediction:

1) #24 Jeff Gordon +450
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson +1500
3) #18 Kyle Busch +800
4) #20 Tony Stewart +450
5) #12 Ryan Newman +4000

Complete list of odds to win Centurion Boats at the Glen at Sportsbook.com:

AJ Allmendinger +10000

Aric Almirola +10000

Bobby Labonte +10000

Boris Said +3000

Brian Vickers +10000

Carl Edwards +1500

Casey Mears +10000

Clint Bowyer +5000

Dale Earnhardt Jr +3500