Home » Kentucky Derby Predictions

2008 Kentucky Derby Predictions

Jimmy Boyd is here to help you get ready for "the most exciting two minutes in sports" with his 2008 Kentucky Derby predictions. The Derby is just about two weeks away and all but one of the meaningful prep races are in the books, so now is a good time to take a look at which horses have the best chances of cashing your win bets.

The Derby is a difficult egg to crack at the best of times, and this year's field is the toughest I've had to get to the bottom of in quite some time with every top contender either being exposed with a glaring problem or a poor performance which can't be explained. One thing that is attempting to throw us for a loop is the synthetic tracks, which most of the key prep races are run on. We just haven't been dealing with these tracks long enough to know exactly how well which types of horses will be able to transition from the synthetic tracks to Churchill Downs' dirt track.

Some experts are saying that this is a weak class of three year olds, but I'm not ready to go that far yet. We just may have to wait until the Derby to see which horses emerge as this year's superstars. With no further ado, here is look at this year's serious Kentucky Derby contenders.

Bet Big Brown to win the 2008 Kentucky Derby at 3/1 odds at BodogLife.com

Oddsmakers have made Big Brown the horse to beat in this year's Derby. He has won each of his races this year in impressive fashion. He has shown that he can run away from the pack from the word go or he can stalk and win with a late finishing kick. This versatility is no doubt what oddsmakers are looking at when making him the favorite because it could be a nice asset in Kentucky, but Big Brown has only run three races and only one in a Stakes competition. That's not a big sample set and the reason for it was a foot problem which kept him out of action.

He won by more than 11 lengths at Saratoga. His margin of victory was even larger on the dirt track at Gulfstream, and he coasted with the pack before unleashing a powerful finishing kick to pull away at the Florida Derby. I can't doubt the talent that I have seen, but I also can't overlook the strikes against him – lack of experience, injury, and lengthy layoff before the race.

If we look to the past we see that Curlin had barely run before the Derby and he almost won. Almost may count in horse shoes, but certainly not in horse racing. Barbaro had the same lengthy layoff after winning the Florida Derby and went on to win the Kentucky Derby. Smarty Jones was injured in a training accident and came back to win the Derby. So we know horses can come back to win the biggest race of the season after tough circumstances, but the question here becomes if Big Brown can do it facing all of the above at once.

Bet Colonel John to win the 2008 Kentucky Derby at 6/1 odds at BodogLife.com

Colonel John is the best in the West, coming off a Santa Anita Derby victory in which he beat the other top Western contender El Gato Malo. He has won four of six races, very impressive numbers for any pony, but he is not without flaws either. The Derby will be the first time that Colonel John will have run on dirt so that could be enough reason right there not to take another look his way. Also, while his trainer Eion Harty is acclaimed, he has never had a Derby runner before so may not quite no all about what it takes to where the roses. In addition, Horses from California have not had good runs at the Derby. We haven't had a California prepped winner since Real Quiet in 1998 aptly named for how quiet Cali has been in big races.

Bet Pyro to win the 2008 Kentucky Derby at 8/1 odds at BodogLife.com

Before the Bluegrass Stakes, Pyro was more than likely going to be inked in as the Kentucky Derby fave. He has a strong second place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and then recorded impressive wins in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. He likely didn't even need a win at the Bluegrass Stakes to be favored as long as he had a solid showing, but Pyro ran 10th the whole way to leave us all scratching our heads. Some will dismiss his performance as it was on a synthetic track while others will see it as a sign of fading form to close to the big one. The good news is that those who still like this steed will get him at a much better price because of his Bluegrass debacle.

Other top contenders include Tale of Ekati, Recapturetheglory, and Gayego.

Make sure you check out Jimmy Boyd's 2008 Kentucky Derby odds, the 2008 Kentucky Derby Betting Guide, and other betting articles to soak up all the information you can before wagering on the big race.

April 16th, 2008