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2008 Lenox Industrial Tools 301 Predictions

This week's NASCAR Sprint Cup race in Loudon, New Hampshire begins the "Race to the Chase" (the 10 race stretch before the 12 drivers are set to go in the Chase for the Championship) and Jimmy Boyd has you covered with his Lenox Industrial Tools 301 predictions.

Looking to what drivers have don at Richmond and Phoenix is the best way to predict what they'll do at Loudon as all three race tracks drive very similarly. History has shown us time and time again that if a driver is good on one of these tracks, he'll be good on all three no matter what era or model of car.

Last season, Jimmie Johnson was the man to beat on these tracks as we won three of the six combined spring and fall races at Loudon, Richmond, and Phoenix. The year before, Kevin Harvick won four of the six races. Since New Hampshire started hosting two races a year, 2001 marks the only time where there was no multiple winners in these six races.

The driver I have my eyes on this week may surprise you at first since he has not won at Phoenix or Richmond already this season. That means I'm not taking Jimmie Johnson or Clint Bowyer. The car who was the most dominant in both of those races, but just couldn't quite get the job done, belonged to Denny Hamlin.

Hamlin finished third at Phoenix as Johnson's fuel gamble led him to the win. Hamlin led 381 laps of the Richmond race before he endured the misfortune of a flat tire. When Hamlin was out of the mix, Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. battled it out for the win, nearly wrecking each other. When they bobbed and slowed to regain control of their cars, Bowyer sneaked in for the win.

These scenarios point out why we can't just blindly take a winner at one of the other tracks in this three-track combo without examining what actually happened in the races. Like Hamlin, Junior ran well at both Richmond and Phoenix this season despite how the final results read and he also has several wins at both tracks in his career.

Another driver that fits my criteria is Mark martin who was leading at Phoenix before having to pit at the end of the race. He ended up finishing fifth and then followed that up with a third place finish at Richmond. The issue this week is that Martin will be stepping aside for rookie Aric Almirola. We can be assured that the rookie will have a good car and decent shot at winning with longshot odds.

The other good car at D.E.I. will be driven by Martin Truex Jr. who has ran in the top ten in both previous races we've been discussing.

Kyle Busch will be Hamlin's toughest competitor this week for other reasons than the fact that he's been the man to beat all year. In six starts at Loudon, Busch has three top five finishes, including a win.

TOP 5 Finish prediction:

1-#11 Denny Hamlin (7/1)
2-#18 Kyle Busch (5/1)
3-#88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (8/1)
4-#1 Martin Truex Jr (18/1)
5-#07 Clint Bowyer (15/1)

Complete list of odds from Sportsbook.com

AJ Allmendinger 100 - 1

Aric Almirola 60 - 1

Bobby Labonte 100 - 1

Brian Vickers 35 - 1

Carl Edwards 7 - 1

Casey Mears 100 - 1

Clint Bowyer 15 - 1

Dale Earnhardt Jr 8 - 1

Dave Blaney 100 - 1

David Gilliland 100 - 1

David Ragan 40 - 1

David Reutimann 100 - 1

Denny Hamlin 7 - 1

Elliott Sadler 60 - 1

Greg Biffle 15 - 1

Jamie McMurray 75 - 1

Jeff Burton 25 - 1

Jeff Gordon 12 - 1

Jimmie Johnson 7 - 1

Juan Pablo Montoya 100 - 1

Kasey Kahne 25 - 1

Kevin Harvick 15 - 1

Kurt Busch 35 - 1

Kyle Busch 5 - 1

Martin Truex Jr 18 - 1

Matt Kenseth 15 - 1

Michael Waltrip 100 - 1

Paul Menard 100 - 1

Reed Sorenson 100 - 1

Ryan Newman 35 - 1

Sam Hornish Jr 100 - 1

Tony Stewart 8 - 1

Travis Kvapil 100 - 1

Field (Any Other Driver) 25 - 1

June 26th, 2008