2009 Florida State Football Predictions

Florida State improved from seven wins in 2007 to nine in 2008. The nine wins, capped off by a 42-13 blowout of Wisconsin in the Champs Sports Bowl, are a good sign that things are headed in the right direction, but 2008 marked the eighth straight season in which the Noles have lost three or more games. Losing that many contests used to be unheard of for FSU. In fact, from 1987 to 2000, the program never endured more than two defeats in a season. Will 2009 be the year FSU gets back to its dominant ways? Get my take in this 2009 college football betting preview. Florida State is listed at +2,200 to win the 2009 BCS title.

Offense – The Seminoles showed glimpses of their high powered offenses of old last season when they averaged 33.4 points per game (22nd nationally) and 371.9 yards per game (2nd in the ACC). With seven starters returning, including quarterback Christian Ponder and all five offensive lineman, the Seminoles should be able to rack up the yards and the points again in 2009. The key to FSU’s improved offensive production seems to be an emphasis on the running game. Last season, the Seminoles were able to gain 179.1 yards per game on the ground to rank 33rd in the nation. The offensive line figures to be one the best in the league and Jermaine Thomas will be one of the running backs that gets to benefit from that. Thomas rushed 69 times for 482 yards and three scores last season. If you do the math that’s a 6.98 yards per carry average. I expect he and Ty Jones to run all over the opposition this season. Ponder is coming off a 2,006 yard season through the air, in which he connected on 14 touchdown strikes. But he needs to cut down on his 13 interceptions. Having time to throw should not be an issue behind a deep line so improvement is expected. He will need some playmakers to emerge in the wide receiver corps, however, as very little production returns. Look for Richard Goodman and Bert Reed to get the starting nods.

Defense – The FSU defense was pretty darn good in 2008, holding opponents to 20.2 points per game (26th nationally) and 294.9 yards per game (15th nationally). It was particularly stingy against the pass, ranking sixth in the nation by allowing only 162.4 yards per game. The pressure that star defensive end Everette Brown was able to apply on opposing passers up front was a big reason why the Seminoles were so successful against the pass. With the All-American no longer in Tallahassee, defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews will ask Markus White and Kevin McNeil to pick up the slack. McNeil is the team’s top returning sack guy, recording four last season. The secondary should remain a strength with cornerback Patrick Robinson and safety Jamie Robinson coming back. For FSU to land itself back in a BCS bowl, it is going to have to be better against the run this season. The team allowed 132.5 yards per game in 2008 (42nd nationally). That puts the pressure on guys like defensive tackle Kendrick Stewart to be a major force on the interior. We can expect solid play from Dakoda Watson at linebacker, but both Kendall Smith and Nigel Bradham must show that they are ready to play at a high level beside him.

Prediction: 1st ACC Atlantic – I like FSU to win a tight race in the ACC Atlantic Division but it won’t be easy. All eight league opponents on the Noles’ schedule played in a bowl last season and non-conference matchups with BYU, South Florida, and Florida will be no picnic. I can’t see FSU ending its skid of three or more loss seasons just yet. Florida State is listed at +200 to win the ACC Atlantic at BetUS.  Also, expert handicapper Craig Trapp agrees with me in his 2009 Florida State football predictions article.

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