2009 Hawaii Bowl Odds: Nevada v. SMU Football Picks & Predictions
The 8-4 Nevada Wolf Pack take on the 7-5 SMU Mustangs in the 2009 edition of the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve. NCAA football odds makers are expecting a rout, listing Nevada as a 13.5-point favorite with the total set at 72.5.
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Mustangs head coach June Jones returns to Hawaii after leading his new team to the biggest turnaround in the FBS this season. The Mustangs haven’t been bowling since 1984 when they finished 10-2 and defeated the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. Just a year after that season, the program found itself under the microscope of the NCAA for recruiting violations. It’s been a long time since SMU has been in the headlines for the right reasons and it appears coach Jones now has the program heading in the right direction.
Before Jones accepted the job prior to last season, SMU had gone just 58-153-3 under four different head men while only posting one winning season. Jones was able to take Hawaii to a BCS game in his ninth season at the school, and now he has turned this SMU program around from a 1-11 team to a 7-5 bowl-bound team.
Jones was known for his run-and-shoot offense, which relied heavily on the pass, during his stay at Hawaii, but he has shown that he can adapt to his personnel. His SMU team has displayed much more balance than his Hawaii teams thanks to talented running back Shawnbrey McNeal. McNeal finished the regular season 1,125 yards and nine scores.
Losing QB Bo Levi Mitchell back in late October hurt, but freshman QB Kyle Padron has been up to the challenge. Padron has stepped in and has thrown for 1,462 yards and eight scores in six games. He wasted no time building chemistry with leading receiver Emmanuel Sanders, who caught 91 balls for 1,215 yards this season. While SMU’s offense figures to be able to move the football on the Wolf Pack, it’s defense must perform well to have a shot against a potent Nevada offensive attack. It is worth noting that the Mustangs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. If you like the Mustangs in the underdog role Thursday, bet SMU at +13.5 at BetUS.
Nevada became the first team in NCAA history to boast three 1,000-yards rushers in the same season. This all adds up to the nation’s best rushing offense, which racks up 362.3 yards per game on the ground. In all, Nevada’s 521.6 total yards per game average is good for second in the country, and its 40.6 points per game average is good for fifth.
Vai Taua led the Pack with 1,345 rushing yards, but it is QB Colin Kaepernick that is the leader of the team. Kaepernick did it all this season, rushing for a career-high 1,160 yards and 16 scores. He also threw for 1,875 yards and 19 touchdowns against only five interceptions. Luke Lippincott is the third member of the 1,000-yard club, chipping in with 1,034 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. WAC Freshman of the Year, Brandon Wimberly was Kaepernick’s go-to receiver with 653 receiving yards. Nevada will be taking on a SMU team allowing 27.9 points and 404 yards per game on the season.
While we have come to expect fireworks from the Wolf Pack offense, the defense must perform better. Nevada was especially susceptible against the pass this season, allowing a whopping 284.3 yards per game through the air. To put that in further perspective, only one FBS team was worse. Nevada will need a big game from Dontay Moch, who had an incredible 19.5 tackles for loss this season, to take the pressure off of its secondary. It is worth noting that the Wolf Pack are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite of 10.5 or more points. If you like the Wolf Pack to cover the spread Thursday, bet Nevada at -13.5 at BetUS.
Jimmy Boyd has dominated the bowl season each of the last two years, finishing the 2007-08 bowl season on a 14-5 run and the 2008-09 season on a 10-4 home stretch run. Crush your book again this year through the BCS Championship Game with Jimmy’s expert football picks!
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