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2009 Houston Astros Odds & Predictions

Written by Jimmy Boyd on March 16, 2009

astros-31609 It has usually been the Houston Astros playing second fiddle to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central. From 2004-2006, the Astros collected three straight runner-up finishes in the NL Central Division. The last two seasons, Houston has struggled its way to fourth and third place finishes. The good news is that the Astros appear to be back on their way up and should be playing for the runner-up spot again in 2009. The Houston Astros are listed at +4500 to win the 2009 World Series.

Pitching
What once was one of the strongest starting rotations in the National League with Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Roy Oswalt, is now just Roy Oswalt and a bunch of average guys. Mr. Oswalt is no doubt one of my favorite pitchers in baseball. Not physically imposing at all, like a Carlos Zambrano, at 6′0” 185 pounds, Oswalt takes the mound every five days and leaves it all on the field. His 86-47 mark over the last five seasons has been truly remarkable. Oswalt finished with a 17-10 mark in 2008 with an ERA of 3.54. Brian Moehler came out of the pen and joined the starting rotation last season and did a solid job. In fact, he was the only pitcher besides Oswalt to record double digit wins. Southpaw Wandy Rodriguez seems to be the wild card of this staff. He made drastic improvements between the 2007 and 2008 seasons, lowing his ERA by more than a point, but he continues to struggle outside of Houston. Brandon Backe is coming off a disastrous 2008 where he finished with an ERA of over 6.00. Mike Hampton comes over from Atlanta and will try to be for them what Randy Wolf was late in the season. They didn’t resign Wolf despite his 6-2 mark and 3.57 ERA, but they will give Hampton a go.

The Astros weren’t expecting much from their pen last season, but they ended up quite pleased. Closer Jose Valverde led the NL with 44 saves and LaTroy Hawkins came on strong late in the season after coming over from the Yankees, allowing only one earned run in 24 outings.

Lineup
Switch hitting first baseman Lance Berkman still does not get enough recognition if you ask me. He is by far the most versatile power hitter in the NL. Berkman batted .312 with 29 homeruns and 106 RBIs last season. Left fielder Carlos Lee follow up Berkman in the order in the clean up spot. In two seasons with the ’stros, he’s hit .308 with 60 homeruns and 219 RBIs. Whether age (35), all the negative publicity surrounding steroid use, or a new home, shortstop Miguel Tejada posted career lows for a full season in homeruns and RBIs. Known as an offensive shortstop, the Astros are hoping to see at least 20 homeruns and 80 RBIs from Tejada this season. The rest of the power numbers from this team come from right fielder Hunter Pence. He finished with 25 round trippers and 83 RBIs. This lineup is going to have to score a lot of runs to make up for a shaky starting rotation. Second baseman Kaz Matsui, third baseman Geoff Blum, center fielder Michael Bourn, and catcher Humberto Quintero finish out the starting lineup.

Prediction: 3rd Place NL Central
A 13-game improvement from 2007-2008 has me thinking the Astros can challenge the Cardinals for NL Central runner up if their starting pitching can come up with a couple other reliable starters to go with Oswalt. Likely, it will be a solid third place finish in the six-team Central Division. The Houston Astros are listed at +2500 to win the NL Central.

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