2009 Kentucky Derby Picks & Predictions

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derby-picks-43009While I was not alone, I made the call to take the favorite Big Brown in the 2008 Kentucky Derby and rode him to a decisive win. Since the 2007 Belmont Stakes, when I hit the Trifecta, highlighted by Rags to Riches becoming the first filly to win the Belmont since 1905, I have nailed three of the last four Triple Crown races. I’m looking for another strong showing in the 2009 Kentucky Derby this Saturday. Below, I have listed my Win, Place, and Show horses, and you can bet them however you see fit if you choose to do so. Best of luck to you all on race day.

Win: Bet Friesan Fire at +500 at BetUS and receive a $25 free play – I’m taking Friesan Fire to cross the finish line first at the Derby. I like that we are getting some value with this horse despite his impressive gene pool. He was, of course, sired by 1992 American Horse of the Year A.P. Indy, who is the son of 1977 U.S. Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew. His dam, Bollinger, is the daughter of 1993 American Champion Two-year-old Colt Dehere, and she was an Australian Group One winner herself. While it used to be that a horse could not win in the Derby off a long layoff, the new strategy is to bring them in fresh.  In 2006, Barbaro brought the change. After winning the Florida Derby, he sat out of competition until he stole the show in Louisville. And then last year, Big Brown used the same strategy to prevail in “The Run for the Roses”. Friesan Fire takes this resting strategy to a new extreme. On March 14th, he annihilated the field in the Louisiana Derby and he hasn’t run since. He is one of the most talented in the field, and he’ll also be the freshest horse when the gate opens and that gives him the best shot to win.

Place: Bet I Want Revenge at +300 at BetUS and receive a $25 free play – I like the Derby favorite to cross the finish line second. If Florida Derby winner Quality Road hadn’t dropped out with a quarter crack injury, I Want Revenge would not be the favorite, and I believe Friesan Fire would have been favored over him, too, if he had won another race after the Louisiana Derby. I Want Revenge is still a quality horse, and I believe he’ll be right there with Friesan Fire most of the way. The thing I really like about I Want Revenge is that he has proven to be even better on the dirt than he was on synthetic tracks. Two outstanding victories at Aqueduct make him the favorite, but I don’t think he’ll be able to put out the Fire.

Show: Bet Dunkirk at +400 at Sportsbook.com and receive a 100% Win Bonus – The runner-up in the Florida Derby, certainly has the potential to win. He reminds me of Curlin with the way he has performed without a juvenile foundation. Curlin finished third in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, and that is where I see Dunkirk as well. This is a horse with lots of potential that isn’t quite ready to put it all together. It doesn’t bother me that jockey Garrett Gomez jumped ship for Pioneer of the Nile because Gomez has never won the Derby.

About the Author: Jimmy Boyd is known for his consistency. He's a proven winner in college and pro football, college and pro basketball and pro baseball. He finished as the No. 1 ranked MLB handicapper in 2007 by earning $1,000/game bettors $50,050. He also finished as the No. 1 ranked basketball handicapper in the 2008-09 season, profiting $1,000/game bettors 38,530. His basketball plays have banked $1,000/game bettors nearly $80,000 the last five years. Check out Jimmy's premium picks for tonight!
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