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2009 Super Bowl Picks

Written by Jimmy Boyd

2009-super-bowl-picks Before making your Super Bowl picks , it is very important to weigh the Super Bowl odds by taking a look inside the head of NFL odds makers.

While odds makers usually set their lines for wiseguys, they gear them toward the perceptions of the betting public for Super Bowl Sunday. The public has shown a tendency to go with the over and the favorite in past Super Bowls. Making both of those calls would have got you royally burned last year when 13.5-point underdog New York beat the New England Patriots 17-14 with the game coming in 23 points under the total. Taking Super Bowl favorites would have gotten you burned in five of the last seven big games. Taking the over would gotten you burned in five of the last seven also, including four straight.

This could be a rare occasion when the underdog actually gets more Super Bowl betting attention than the favorite. There are still a lot of wagers to be made, but initially the Arizona Cardinals are commanding nearly 60 percent of the early action. It has been their dominance as an underdog in the postseason that has America believing in this team. The Cardinals opened as a small home underdog in the Wild Card round and defeated the Atlanta Falcons 30-24. They were a 10-point underdog in the Divisional round and crushed the Panthers 33-13 on the road. In the NFC Championship Game, they turned the tables on a team which had beaten them by 28 points during the regular season, winning outright by seven as a 3.5-point underdog. Bet the Cardinals at +7 at BetUS and receive up to 145% in sign up bonuses if you think they have one more upset win in them.

The over still figures to get plenty of attention Super Bowl Sunday. The betting public often takes the over because it would much rather see a high scoring game than a defensive battle. Keep in mind that odds makers know that and often inflate the total to trap bettors. This trap has worked recently but the books have been known to make mistakes. Line analysis pointed to taking the under in last week’s Eagles versus Cardinals NFC title game. With the total set two points lower than it was when the teams combined for 68 points during the regular season, the books were begging for action on the over, but they were burned.

Here are some more things to keep in mind before making your Super Bowl wagers. The Steelers are now 7-0 against the spread in their last seven playoff games and 4-0 against the number in their last four postseason games as a favorite. The Steelers are also a remarkable 5-1 against the spread in the Super Bowl. Many bettors could side with the Cardinals because they have seen them in three postseason games while they have only seen the Steelers in two. I call this a familiarity complex. But make sure you don’t blindly fall victim to it as the Steelers have an edge in terms of playoff experience. With a 7-point spread, odds makers feel pretty strongly that the Steelers will win the game, but it is up to you to decide if they can cover the number. If you think Pittsburgh continues its unmatched postseason domination, bet the Steelers at -7 at BetUS.

If you’re looking to leave your biases at the door and to take the guesswork out to ensure yourself a Super Bowl winner, then make sure you’re playing who Jimmy Boyd is playing on Super Bowl Sunday.

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