2009 Toronto Blue Jays Odds & Predictions
The Toronto Blue Jays won 86 games in 2008. That number would have won them the NL West by two games last season, but it was only good for fourth in the tough AL East. It was three more wins than they had in 2007 when they took third in the division and just one win less than they had in 2006 when they took second. Now that perennial bottom feeder Tampa Bay is far from that anymore, it looks like the Jays are going to continue to be mediocre in baseball’s toughest division. The Toronto Blue Jays are listed at +4000 to win the 2009 World Series.
Pitching
Starting pitching has been the strong point of this team, but 2009 figures to be a struggle outside ace Roy Halladay. Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum are undergoing surgeries and A.J. Burnett is now with division rival New York. Halladay is coming off a strong 20-11 season in which he posted a 2.78 ERA. He will give the Jays an excellent shot to win every fifth day but there figures to be plenty of rough spots in between. With Burnett parting and with the injuries to McGowan and Marcum, Jesse Litsch will emerge as the team’s No. 2. He was 13-9 with an ERA of 3.58. Ground ball specialist Casey Janssen, second-year pro David Purcey, and former Independent Leaguer Scott Richmond figure to round out the starting five. Ricky Romero and Matt Clement could crack the rotation as well.
The bullpen is a strength, but it could become a weakness if this unit get overworked due to insufficient starts. Closer B.J. Ryan made a successful return from Tommy John surgery and was tough on righties, holding them to a .211 batting average. He picked up 32 saves on the season. There is plenty of depth in middle relief, highlighted by lefty Scott Downs, but he could be forced into the starting rotation if the Jays need him.
Lineup
Center fielder and clean up hitter Vernon Wells is still the big name in the Jays offense. He slugged 20 homeruns and added 78 RBIs in 108 games last season. The Jays need him to be a 30 homerun/100 RBI guy and he should be close in a full season. Right fielder Alex Rios will hit in the three spot. He is working off of a 15 homerun 79 RBI season. The Jays are going to need more production from him but they likely won’t have to worry about getting it against the Yankees of all teams as Rios had a 26-game hitting streak going against the Bronx Bombers until mid-August last season. First baseman Lyle Overbay fits into the underrated category by most and he gives the Jays a nice lefty stick in the middle of the order. He had an impressive .399 on base percentage after May 6. Shortstop Marco Scutaro, second baseman Aaron Hill, third baseman Scott Rolen, left fielder Adam Lind, catcher Rod Barajas, and DH Travis Snider should round out the lineup on Opening Day.
Prediction: 4th AL East
With the emergence of Tampa Bay and with the injuries to Toronto’s pitching staff, it looks like another season in fourth place for the Jays. It could be a very long summer if the offense doesn’t step up to help out a starting pitching rotation that won’t closely resemble the one that led the majors in ERA. The Toronto Blue Jays are listed at +2000 to win the AL East.
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2 Responses to “2009 Toronto Blue Jays Odds & Predictions”
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The blue jays are actually a savvy pick for al east if the young arms respond (CAN U SAY TAMPA?)). The plus is they have better offense than last year with a healthy Hill, Travis Snider, and hopefully a full season from Wells and better years from Rolen and Rios. The blue jays were 51-37 under cito gaston (93-69 over a whole season) with basically less offense than last year and the same pitching as this year except for burnett and the young arms have a chance to do as well as his 4.01 era by mid season. Cito is underrated manger with a ton to prove as only black skipper with two world series rings and never rehired again. As good as Joe Torre or better but because he was black rationalization was that he had great teams (Torre didnt” ? wat happened the last 6 years you were there Joe? Yankees spent a lot more than bjs in those years) There is major competition for the last 2-3 pitching spots if some young guns falter on bjs and they will still have best bullpen in baseball. Yankees should be 5 games better…maybe ….but the division is really a toss up. Texeria and CC should more than offset ARODS problems but Burnett love overdue for elbow problems Boston and Tampa have not really improved. Penny may help Sox but there are many holes and they are aging. Tampa will still compete very well but they havent improved much on the field (can you say Detroits young pitching guns that looked invincible for a decade 3 years ago)a nd keeping last years intensity may be hard with young team. You get can 50-1 odds vs bjs making playoffs. Bet a few hundred bucks if u have to take a flyer on and put a down payment on a house as the eastern elite will give u the sucker bet as they love to drink the Kool aid. Better than giving your money to Bernie Madoff!!! Any of u guys above do that? be honest
Appreciate your enthusiasm for the Jays. I’m a big Roy Halladay fan. The Jays have had a solid team for quite some time, but it has lacked the offense to compete with the AL East Elite for an entire season. I’ll be the first to give you a cookie if you pull this one off, but I feel money on the Jays to make the playoffs is just throwing away your change. Been hearing the Tampa Bay argument for lots of teams, but that doesn’t happen very often. Best of Luck.