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2010 Air Force Football Predictions

Written by Eli Kalika on July 16, 2010

Following the dismantlement of Houston’s offense in their 2009 bowl game, Air Force is riding into this year with plenty of momentum. As shown by the bowl game, anyone not prepared to face a tough, capable team will find themselves embarrassed. This team amounts to immense discipline in every part of their game. In offense, defense, and even special teams, every player can depend on his teammates to know and fulfill their assignment to their best of their ability. A natural trust and unity is present through the team, and it allows them to play way above their talent level. Without a doubt, Air force is a team to watch this year even for the most casual observers of college football.

Offense: When you picture Air Force, the most likely image that comes to mind are powerful, efficient, streamlined jets that are truly beautiful combination of mechanics and technology. While the offense is not as flashy as that image, it is an incredible machine of efficiency. Brutal to opposing defenses, Air Force runs a version of the triple option that can control the time of possession. It focuses on constant runs, shovel passes, tosses, screen passes, and the occasional play action or reverse to keep the defense honest. It is especially good at running downhill, and forcing plays outside on an isolated cornerback.

As I mentioned, Air Force is not particularly concerned with keeping offensive balance. They are a run first time, and last year only averaged 88.4 passing yards per game. Compared to their ridiculous 283.5 rushing yards per game, 88 yards doesn’t really seem like that much. Because of this run dominance, last year they dominated time of possession by a ratio of 1.17 compared to their opponents TOP. That may not seem like much, but it adds up over the course of a long game. Even more devastating to the other team, is the Air Force offense never seems to tire. They average the same amount of points every quarter. Very few teams can stay that consistent. Finally, the Air Force offense gave up a total of 12 turnovers over the entire season. That is less than a turnover a game (including the bowl game.)

The Air Force offense returns some key players. Meet Tim Jefferson, their quarterback, who appears on one of the covers of NCAA Football ’10. More than a glorified running back, but less than a true qb, Tim Jefferson has the discipline, durability and plain guts it takes to be an option quarterback. Although his stats (93 total passes and 88 rushes for 254 yards last year) he is the offense’s heart. Frankly, watching some of his clips, are just plain inspiring. To pitch to, Jefferson has a smooth running back in Asher Clark. Although he doesn’t have a history of breaking off huge runs, he didn’t need to last year, averaging a 5.7 YPC and running for 865 yards. On the downhill runs, Jared Tew, a huge-in-spirit power back (only 210 pounds but can be seen mowing down larger linebackers) and red-zone weapon, will gladly take the carries (4.1 YPC.) While Jefferson only threw 7 passes a game, Air Force also has a true number one receiver in Kevin Fogler. He is 6’5″ and 205 pounds, and can burn defenses, averaging 22.7 YPC last year. With all the offensive weapons at their disposal, and an experienced line, this triple option could be something truly special this year.

Defense: Although they recently lost their defensive coordinator, this defense is truly something special. They can do everything fairly well, but truly excel in pass coverage and hunger for turnovers. While their overall turnover number is slightly skewed from the 6 interceptions they grabbed in their bowl game, the fact that they won 2/3 of the fumbles coughed up by opposing offenses shows a drive that some teams simply do not have. Although Air Force might fall athletically short of some other teams, they work as a unit, and can easily make up for any shortcomings.

On the run defense side of things, the loss of their two senior linebackers (including their leading tackler) will inevitably lead to some growing pains. That said, Andre Moore returns, as well as Rick Rocketts (both of them having 6.5 tackles for a loss), and the defense does not start a single freshman. Do not expect this defense to be too far from the 134 yards per game average set by the 2009 defense.

Although the run defense actually averaged less yards per game last year, the Air Force pass defense is truly special. They rarely, if ever, give up the big play and tallied 20 interceptions last year. They return two secondary leaders in Anthony Wright and Jon Davis, and will likely improve or at least stay the same dominant pass defense.

Prediction: 4th in the Mountain West

Listed at +5000 to Win the BCS Championship

See the rest of expert Jimmy Boyd’s picks for the 2010 Mountain West in his 2010 Mountain West Football Predictions.

Remember, for the best in sports predictions, be sure to check out what the experts are picking! For your college football picks, always go with the people who know the college football lines the best!

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