2010 Fiesta Bowl Odds: Boise State v. TCU Football Picks & Predictions

Written by Jimmy Boyd on January 3, 2010

The 13-0 Boise State Broncos take on the 12-0 TCU Horned Frogs Monday, January 4th on Fox in the 2010 edition of the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. College football odds makers have listed TCU as a 7-point favorite with the total set at 53.5.

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TCU and Boise State both met last postseason in the Poinsettia Bowl with TCU coming away with a 17-16 win. Boise State, which also took an undefeated record into last year’s game, will be looking to avenge that loss and to finish the season a perfect 14-0. This matchup marks the first time two unbeaten teams will play in a BCS bowl other than the BCS Championship Game.

While the Horned Frogs have expressed that they would have liked the opportunity to play a team from a major BCS conference, it would not be wise to overlook a Broncos team that is not unfamiliar with the BCS stage. In fact, Boise State famously knocked off Oklahoma 43-42 with a trick play on a 2-point conversion attempt in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

While Boise State enters with a No. 6 national ranking, there are still those that aren’t sold on this team because the Broncos only defeated one ranked foe all season. That foe was Oregon, which went on to win the Pac-10 and play in the Rose Bowl.

If Texas had ended up losing to Nebraska, and if Cincinnati hadn’t been able to rally from a 21-point deficit to beat Pittsburgh, the Horned Frogs would have gotten their chance to play for the national title. Based on the line, odds makers have been more impressed by TCU, who defeated the nationally ranked BYU Cougars and Utah Utes by a combined 58 points this season. TCU also has a solid win over ACC Atlantic champion Clemson. In fact, each of TCU’s last seven victories have come by at least 27 points. With that in mind, it seems unlikely that we will only see 33 combined points in this year’s clash. TCU ranks No. 4 nationally in scoring offense, scoring 40.7 points per game, and No. 4 in total offense, racking up 469.1 yards per game. The Horned Frogs have done most of their damage on the ground as they average 256.5 rushing yards per game (No. 5 nationally). The TCU offense is led by QB Andy Dalton, who has thrown for 2,484 yards and 22 touchdowns with just five interceptions. He’s also one of four TCU backs with at least 500 yards rushing.

But for as good as the TCU offense has been, the defensive side of the football is where the Horned Frogs could find their edge. Last year, TCU was able to hold the Broncos to just 250 yards of offense. That unit was ranked second in the country in total defense. This year’s defensive unit has been even better, ranking No. 1 in the nation in total defense, allowing only 233.2 yards per game. The Horned Frogs are led by All-American Jerry Hughes, who has 11.5 sacks on the season. It is worth noting that the Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. If you like the Frogs to defeat Boise State in a bowl game for the second straight season, and cover the number in the process, bet TCU at -7 at BetUS.

The TCU defense does figure to have its work cut out for itself against the nation’s highest scoring offense, led by the nation’s highest rated passer. With QB Kellen Moore under center, the Broncos have put up 44.2 points per game this season. Moore finished second in the country with 39 touchdown strikes, and what’s even more impressive is he only threw three interceptions. But, the Broncos could be dealt a major blow as playmaker Austin Pettis, who led the WAC with 14 touchdown catches, is listed as questionable. He finished with 62 catches for 850 yards on the season despite missing the last two games with a lower leg fracture.

If Pettis can’t go, the Broncos may have to rely more on their ground game. Running backs Jeremy Avery and Doug Martin have combined for 1,854 yards this season. But they’ll have to prove they can get the job done against the nation’s third-ranked rushing defense. It is worth noting that the Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. If you think odds makers aren’t giving the Broncos enough respect, bet Boise State at +7 at BetUS.

Jimmy Boyd always finishes the bowl season on a strong note. He has dominated the bowl season each of the last two years, finishing the 2007-08 bowl season on a 14-5 run and the 2008-09 season on a 10-4 home stretch run. He brings in current 4-1 and 6-2 bowl hot streaks into Monday’s matchup. Crush your book again with Jimmy’s expert football picks!

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