San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons Spread

A San Francisco 49ers team that was the preseason favorite to win the NFC West has been one of the biggest disappointments thus far. The 49ers are 0-3 heading into Week 4, and they have looked terrible in their two road contests, getting outscored 62-16.

In reaction to last week’s 31-10 loss at Kansas City, offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye was shown the door. Now it will be up to Mike Johnson to find the right formula.

After a tough Week 1 loss at Pittsburgh, the Atlanta Falcons have rattled off consecutive victories, including one over defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans last week.

The most recent meeting between these two teams came last season. That game saw Atlanta blast the 49ers for 45 points in a 35-point blowout win on the road. With that game in mind, NFL odds makers have listed the Falcons as a 7-point favorite with the total set at 43.

San Francisco’s lackluster offense is the biggest reason for its disappointing start. Through three games the 49ers have only scored 38 points, which is the second-lowest total in the league. It would be the lowest had they not punched one in with three ticks left last Sunday.

The new offensive coordinator certainly appears to have his work cut out for himself. Not even offensive mastermind Mike Martz, who has helped turnaround the Bears, was able to get the offense untracked when he was calling the plays in 2008.

Johnson has very little experience as a coordinator. In fact, he has only called two games in his coaching career, and those were for the Falcons at the end of the 2003 season. It is worth noting that then-Falcons quarterback Michael Vick recorded passer ratings of 119.2 and 93 in those two games.

Heading into the season, San Francisco was expected to be a power running team. However, Johnson has spent a lot of time studying the spread offense, so it will be interesting to see how often the 49ers go to spread packages. Considering quarterback Alex Smith and wide receiver Michael Crabtree both excelled in spread offenses in college, that may be the way for the 49ers to go.

While San Francisco has not inspired much confidence on the road thus far, we can’t ignore the fact that it is 5-1-2 against the spread in its last eight games as a road underdog.

The Atlanta Falcons are making a concerted effort to run the football. Led by Michael Turner and Jason Snelling, the Falcons rushed 50 times for 202 yards in their overtime win over the Saints. The previous week, Atlanta rushed 45 times for 221 yards in a blowout win over Arizona.

The Falcons will be able to run all over San Francisco Sunday if the 49ers aren’t able to improve on last week’s performance. After holding each of their first two opponents to 77 or less yards rushing, the 49ers allowed the Chiefs to gash them for 207 yards on the ground.

From a betting perspective, we find that Atlanta is a perfect 6-0 against the number in its last six home games as a favorite of 3.5-10 points.