San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots Spread

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The New England Patriots (10-3) host the San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) Sunday night in a potential Super Bowl preview. Oddsmakers have listed the Patriots as a six-point favorite and have set the total at 47.5.

Why New England Covers

The Patriots have won seven straight and are beaming with confidence following Monday’s 42-14 beatdown of the Houston Texans.

The Texans are one of the top defensive teams in the league, but Tom Brady and company sliced through them like a knife through hot butter.

What the Patriots were able to do to Houston shouldn’t come as a huge surprise. After all, they have been shredding good defenses for years, especially in the latter part of the season. Consider that New England is on a 21-9 against the spread run in the second half of the schedule versus good defensive teams like the 49ers that give up 285.0 yards or less per game.

Every year, the Patriots get better and better as the season goes on. In fact, they are 21-0 in regular season games played in the second half of the season since 2010 and have won their last 13 December contests. San Francisco hasn’t been as reliable in the month of December, especially on the road where it is on a 0-6 against the spread slide in the month. It has lost these six by an average score of 24.5 to 15.2.

It is also worth noting that the Patriots are an impressive 7-1 against the spread when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. They have won these games by an average score of 39.8 to 18.4.

Why San Francisco Covers

The 49ers have been an awesome investment in recent years. In fact, they are 22-9-1 against the number in their last 32 games. They have especially been a good investment lately against elite teams.

San Fransisco is on a 6-0 against the spread run versus top-level teams like New England that have won more than 75.0 percent of their games. The 49ers haven’t just won these games, they have won them by an average score of 31.3 to 14.0.

While New England is the best offensive team in the league, its defense leaves plenty to be desired. The Patriots rank 26th in the NFL in total defense with 376.5 yards allowed per game. This statistic is significant considering the 49ers are on a 6-0 against the spread run versus teams that give up an average of 375.0 yards or more per game. The Niners have rolled these teams by an average score of 34.0 to 10.8.

The 49ers have also had a great deal of success against teams that have trouble defending the pass. It is significant that New England gives up an average of 7.4 yards per pass attempt considering the Niners are on a 9-1 against the spread run versus teams that allow 7.0 yards or more per pass.

The New England offense is a well-oiled machine, but if any team can slow it down it’s the 49ers. San Francisco ranks No. 1 in the NFL in scoring defense with 14.2 points allowed per game and No. 2 in total defense with 275.5 yards allowed per game. It ranks second in the league against the pass (184.7 yards allowed per game) and second against the run (90.8 yards allowed per game). As you can see, it has no real weaknesses.

About the Author: Jimmy Boyd is known for his consistency. He's a proven winner in college and pro football, college and pro basketball and pro baseball. He finished as the No. 1 ranked MLB handicapper in 2007 by earning $1,000/game bettors $50,050. He also finished as the No. 1 ranked basketball handicapper in the 2008-09 season, profiting $1,000/game bettors 38,530. His basketball plays have banked $1,000/game bettors nearly $80,000 the last five years. Check out Jimmy's premium picks for tonight!
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