Air Force at Michigan Odds

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No. 19 Michigan takes on Air Force in the Big House Saturday. You can catch the action on ABC or ESPN2.

The Wolverines will be trying to bounce back from an ugly 41-14 loss to defending national champion Alabama while the Falcons will be looking to build on an impressive 49-21 victory over Idaho State.

These schools have only met once before with Michigan winning 24-7 in Ann Arbor back in 1964.

Odds makers expect the Wolverines to come storming back this week, listing them as a 21.5-point favorite. The total has been set at 61.0.

Michigan:

Michigan’s mental toughness will be tested Saturday as it tries to turn the page on last week’s lopsided loss. Coach Brady Hoke said it best: “…we can’t let Alabama beat us twice.”

Michigan was one of the best rushing teams in the college football last season, ranking 13th nationally with 221.9 yards per game. However, it only managed 69 yards on the ground versus the Crimson Tide last week.

Getting the running game going will be vital to Michigan’s chances Saturday. The return of running back Fitzgerald Toussaint from a one-game suspension should certainly help the ground attack. The junior rushed for 1,041 yards and nine touchdowns on 5.6 yards per carry in 2011. He should take some pressure off quarterback Denard Robinson, who completed only 11 of 26 passes for 200 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions and ran for just 27 yards against Alabama.

Air Force held Idaho State to 66 yards rushing, but it won’t have near that kind of success in slowing down Michigan’s running game. Keep in mind the Falcons ranked 109th in the country against the run in 2011 with 219.7 yards allowed per contest.

Air Force:

If Air Force can find a way to pull off the upset, it will bring a 19-game losing streak against ranked opponents to an end. The Falcons have been on the brink of ending this skid in recent years. They played then-No. 7 Oklahoma to a three-point game in 2010, and they lost by five to then-No. 8 Utah the same year. They gave then-No. 5 Boise State a run for the money on the blue turf last year.

Alabama ran wild on the Michigan defense in Week 1, racking up 232 rushing yards while averaging better than 5.5 yards per carry. Michigan will have its work cut out for itself again as it tries to slow down an Air Force ground attack that gained 484 yards last week.

The Falcons are the nation’s top rushing team since the start of 2010 with 317.1 rushing yards per game. They ranked third in the country last season with 314.8 yards per game on the ground.

Michigan ranked a respectable 39th nationally against the run in 2011 with 131.7 yards allowed per game, but one wouldn’t have known that while watching last week’s game.

Betting Trends:

Despite last week’s defeat, the Wolverines are still 9-3-1 against the spread in their last 13 non-conference clashes. It is also worth noting that they are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games following a loss of more than 20 points and 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games.

The Falcons have covered the spread in four of their last five on the road but are just 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games following a win.

In regard to the total, the over appears to be worth a look. That’s because Air Force has finished above the number in 10 of its last 13 overall, four of its last five on the road and each of its last four versus the Big Ten.

About the Author: Jimmy Boyd is known for his consistency. He's a proven winner in college and pro football, college and pro basketball and pro baseball. He finished as the No. 1 ranked MLB handicapper in 2007 by earning $1,000/game bettors $50,050. He also finished as the No. 1 ranked basketball handicapper in the 2008-09 season, profiting $1,000/game bettors 38,530. His basketball plays have banked $1,000/game bettors nearly $80,000 the last five years. Check out Jimmy's premium picks for tonight!
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