Alabama at Florida Spread
Undefeated SEC titans clash this Saturday as the No. 12 Florida Gators host the No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide in Gainesville, Florida at 7:00 PM EST. The odds for the game have already been posted and they list the Tide as 4-point road favorites, while the total is currently set for 44.5 points. Here’s a brief look at both teams.
Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0)
The Tide get a lot of press for their defense, and rightfully so, but their offense has also looked solid to start the season. Through four games, Alabama is averaging 38.5 points per game on 456 total yards of offense. Unsurprisingly, most of that offense has come on the ground on the legs of star running back Trent Richardson. Led by Richardson (425 yards, 8 touchdowns), the Tide are averaging better than 6 yards per carry for 231 rushing yards per game.
Alabama’s passing attack relies on the efficiency of quarterback A.J. McCarron. So far he’s racked up 779 yards and four touchdowns to two interceptions on 66.3% passing. His favorite target is undoubtedly Marquis Maze, who has already pick up 20 receptions for 226 yards and a touchdown.
Looking at ‘Bama’s defensive numbers so far this year you can see why they were so hyped in the offseason. They are allowing only 8 points and 184 total yards per game and they do not appear to have a weakness. They’ve given up an average of just 46 rushing yards per game (1.8 yards per rush) and 138 passing yards per game (3.5 yards per pass).
If the Crimson Tide do have a weakness it might be in taking care of the ball (7 turnovers to 6 takeaways), but five of their seven turnovers came in the first game of the season where Alabama was in no danger of losing and took unnecessary risks in the passing game. That’s something I don’t imagine they will do against Florida this week.
Florida Gators (4-0)
The Gators haven’t played quite the competition that Alabama has so far this season, but Florida still has numbers that stack up well against the Tide. The Gators average 40.2 points and 462 yards per game offensively.
The Florida offense also relies heavily on their running backs, most notably Chris Rainey, who has carried the ball 63 times this season for 393 yards (6.2 yards per carry) and two touchdowns. Backup RB Jeff Demps has also been impressive, averaging 8.9 yards per carry (34 carries, 304 yards) and has found the endzone four times already this season.
Quarterback John Brantley isn’t lighting up boxscores, but he’s been good, completing 64% of his passes for 752 yards and four touchdowns and two interceptions so far. Rainey is also the leading receiver on the team, grabbing 11 catches for 214 yards and two touchdowns.
Florida has also been rock-solid on defense. They are allowing just 232 total yards per game for just 9 points per game. Teams are rushing for a mere 56 yards per game against them and averaging just 2.1 yards per carry (that number drops to just 1.2 ypc at home).
Predictions
This is a big one for both squads. Florida has been kind of lying-in-wait after a few years of no longer being top dogs in the SEC. Alabama has earned the right to be considered the favorite to take the SEC title and they looked awfully good against Arkansas last week. The odds tell us that Alabama is probably a better team, but playing the Swap is a huge advantage in this matchup for Florida. Unfortunately for the Gators, the Tide have played on big stages before and come away with victories, so I don’t think they’ll be intimidated.
Final Score Prediction: Alabama 31, Florida 27
