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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints NFL Odds & Predictions

Written by Jimmy Boyd on November 1, 2009

The 4-2 Atlanta Falcons head to the Superdome this Monday night trying to hand the 6-0 New Orleans Saints their first loss of the season in an NFC South Division clash. Last week, the Falcons suffered a double digit loss to the Cowboys on the road. Meanwhile, the Saints got a scare from the Dolphins but overcame a 21-point deficit to stay unbeaten. These teams last met in Week 14 of last season with the Saints edging out the Falcons 29-25. New Orleans has won five of the last six meetings in this series and NFL odds makers expect its recent dominance to continue, listing the Saints as 11.5-point favorites with the total set at 55.

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New Orleans became the first team in NFL history to score 45 or more points in four of its first six games when it put up 46 on Miami last week. Another 45 or more point effort would almost certainly ink the Saints in at 7-0. They’ll have a great shot to win anyway when you consider that QB Drew Brees has defeated Atlanta five of six times since joining the Saints. While Brees has shown that he will spread the football around, the Falcons must make No. 1 wideout Marques Colston a marked man. Colston is among the NFL leaders in yards per catch (15.5) and receiving touchdowns (5). The Falcons will have to limit his big plays to slow down New Orleans’ high powered offense.

Defensively, the acquisition of safety Darren Sharper is paying off. Not only is sharper providing veteran leadership, but he is also proving that he still has some good years left in him. Sharper is making big plays all over the field and he already has six interceptions this season. He’ll be stalking Falcons QB Matt Ryan, who has struggled with five interceptions in his last three games. It is worth noting that the Saints are 18-5 against the spread in their last 23 games as a favorite and a perfect 6-0 against the number in their last six games as a home favorite. If you like New Orleans to win big at home on the Monday Night Football stage, bet the Saints at -11.5 at BetUS.

There isn’t a team in the NFL this season likely to outscore the quick strike Saints in a shootout. The best defense appears to be a good ball control offense that limits New Orleans’ number of possessions, and, therefore, scoring opportunities. That means that running back Michael Turner is going to have to find some running room Monday. The Falcons were a very good running football team last season, but they have only rushed for more than 100 yards in three games this season. The Falcons have won two of those three games. Getting turner plenty of touches has proven to be a strong recipe for success as his teams are 14-1 when he gets at least 19 totes in a game. In order to take some pressure off Ryan, Atlanta needs to establish the running game. Then, watch the play action opportunities open up for Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez.

Defensively, John Abraham has been Mr. Prime Time with 6.5 sacks in eight career Monday night games. He has 3.5 sacks on the season. He wasn’t able to get to Tony Romo last week, and as a result, Dallas carved up the Falcons with 299 passing yards. Abraham must get some heat on Brees so he can’t sit back in the pocket and pick them apart. The good news is Atlanta is on a 25-8 against the spread run in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. The Falcons are also 8-1 against the number in their last 9 games following a straight up loss. If you like Atlanta to keep this one within the number, bet the Falcons at +11.5 at BetUS.

Close out Week 8 NFL action with a bang Monday night with NFL expert picks from world champion handicapper Jimmy Boyd!

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