Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers NFL Spread & Picks

The 2-1 Atlanta Falcons make the cross-country trip to take on the 3-1 San Francisco 49ers this Sunday in a Week 5 NFC non-division clash. The 49ers rebounded from their heartbreaking loss to the Vikings by pitching a 35-0 shutout against the Rams in Week 4. We last saw the Falcons in Week 3 when they were crushed 26-10 at New England. The Falcons will hope to put their bye week to good use to get back in the win column. These teams last met in 2007 with Atlanta winning 20-16, but San Francisco has won three of the last five meetings. The 49ers hold a commanding 44-28-1 lead in the all-time series. The books are giving the slight edge to San Francisco this week, listing the 49ers as 2.5-point favorites with the total set at 41.

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The 49ers appear to be the real deal this season, but a win over an Atlanta Falcons team that made a playoff trip is 2008 would be even more proof. It will be hard to bet against the 49ers at home this week when you consider that QB Shaun Hill is 7-0 at home as a starter. Hill has played well this season, completing 66 of 106 passes for 700 yards and five touchdowns and tight end Vernon Davis is a big reason why. Davis has been on the receiving end of three of Hill’s touchdown throws to lead all tight ends and he also leads the 49ers with 17 catches. Davis has been a different player ever since he was called out by coach Mike Singletary last season and it appears the highly touted end will live up to his potential after all.

The biggest reason for San Francisco’s early season success has been the defense and linebacker Patrick Willis has been leading the unit. He is coming off a career high 2.5-sack performance in last week’s win. It is worth noting that the 49ers are 5-0-1 against the number in their last six games versus a team with a winning record. It is also worth noting that the Falcons are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight meetings in San Francisco.  If you like San Francisco at home this week, bet the 49ers at -2.5 at Bookmaker.

With Atlanta coming off a bye week, I have to think the Falcons will be well prepared for this one. The key for Atlanta seems to be getting out of the gate fast. In fact, the Falcons are 13-1 under coach Mike Smith when they hold a halftime lead.

While QB Matt Ryan, who enters this contest ranked sixth in the NFL with a 100.4 passer rating, has shown that he can put the team on his back to win a football game, the Falcons offense runs a lot smoother when it is able to run the football. Running back Michael Turner finished as the second-leading rusher in the NFL in 2008, but he has not been nearly as effective this season. Teams are holding him to just 3.5 yards per carry, which is a full yard less per carry than he averaged last season. The Falcons would love to get him on track this week, but it won’t be easy against the 49ers’ fourth ranked run defense.

If this game goes right down to the wire as odds makers have projected, the Falcons will likely have to turn to place kicker Jason Elam. Elam was Mr. Automatic in 2008, hitting 29 of 31 field goals, but he has struggled through the early part of this season, missing two field goal tries in the season opener and an extra point attempt. It is worth noting that the Falcons are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game and the 49ers are only 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. If you think Atlanta has what it takes to get the job done on the road, bet the Falcons at +2.5 at Bookmaker.

Score big this Sunday with NFL expert picks from world champion handicapper Jimmy Boyd.

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