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Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings NFL Predictions & Odds
The Baltimore Ravens look to end their two-game skid Sunday at the Metrodome by handing the Minnesota Vikings their first loss of the season. Last week, Baltimore went down 17-14, falling victim to a fourth quarter rally by Carson Palmer and the Bengals. The Vikings improved to 5-0 with an easy 38-10 win over the Rams. These teams have not faced each other since 2005 when the Ravens picked up a 30-23 win behind a big day from QB Kyle Boller. These teams have only met three times with the Ravens winning two of the three. The books expect Minnesota to remain undefeated and to even the score, listing the Vikings as a 3-point favorite with the total set at 43.5.
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Perhaps discipline and faulty play calling have cost the Ravens more than anything in each of their last two losses. The Ravens led the league with 37 rushing attempts per game last season, but they have averaged only 27 carries per game this season. QB Joe Flacco has played well, and likely deserved a few more pass attempts, but the Ravens won football games by controlling the clock and with a dominant defense last season. A more pass-heavy offense has the Ravens’ defense on the field three minutes longer each game. It may not seem like much, but this is a veteran unit, and anyone could see they looked a little winded down the stretch the past couple weeks.
Penalties have also been a huge reason why Baltimore has lost two straight. In the last two games, the Ravens have been penalized 19 times for 161 yards. These are drive killers and field position changers and they can’t happen this week in Minnesota.
While I would like to see the Ravens get back to dominating the time of possession with some more running plays for Ray Rice and Willis McGahee, who are each averaging over 5.0 yards per carry, Flacco doesn’t figure to be a bad weapon to have at their disposal this week. He is 6-2 in his last eight road starts with 1,712 yards and 13 touchdowns versus only four interceptions. It is worth noting that the Ravens are 14-5 against the spread in their last 19 games overall and 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 road games. If you like Baltimore to get back in the win column this week, bet the Ravens at +3 at Bookmaker.
Last week’s win was a big one for the Vikings for a couple reasons. It was the 400th victory in franchise history and it also marked the first time Brett Favre has gotten off to a 5-0 start in his career. I find that hard to believe with all the good seasons he had in Green Bay, but the numbers don’t lie. Favre figures to be the key this week as Minnesota’s running game has struggled and the Ravens are one of the best run-stuffing teams in the NFL. In fact, Minnesota is only averaging 2.8 yards per carry at home this season and the Ravens are only allowing 2.7 yards per carry on the road. Ever since his game-winning pass against San Francisco, Favre has looked about five years younger. The key for the Vikings will be giving him time to throw the football. After allowing nine sacks through the first three games, the Viking offensive line has only allowed two the last two weeks. But Minnesota faces a Ravens defense which already has 11 sacks on the season. Favre’s right arm figures to be the key to Minnesota remaining undefeated so the line has got to protect him against a good pass rush defense. It is worth noting that the Ravens are only 6-13 against the number in their last 19 games following a straight up loss and the Vikings are 4-1 against the spread this season. If you think Minnesota will remain undefeated and cover the number in the process, bet the Vikings at -3 at Bookmaker.
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