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Baseball Handicapping Mistakes

Written by Jimmy Boyd

You aren’t going to be perfect in everything that you do, that much is fairly obvious. Normally when you try to take too many short cuts and come out on the wrong side of things then you get some sort of negative reinforcement that makes sure it doesn’t happen again. When you are doing baseball betting, it’s like working your way through a mine field. It looks like it will be easy for you to look at games, place a few bets, and cash in, but in reality you will lose plenty of games. Hopefully, when you lose you will learn something from those losses. While nobody can hit 80% of their bets for the rest of their life, guys like Jimmy Boyd will win more of their baseball picks than they lose to ensure that a profit is made. Right now is as good of a time as any to learn a few lessons on what goes into making accurate predictions and beating the MLB betting odds on a daily basis.

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1. Playing Too Many Favorites – Everyone who gets started with sports betting instinctively concentrates on favorites over underdogs. They take a look at a favorite at -160, thinking that the team is more likely to win then they build up reasons in their head why the favorite would probably win, rather than doing research to support the play. Sure the favorite might be the right side to be on, but you have to find more than reasons why it is than it isn’t. If you want to break the mold then you should make it a practice of looking at yesterday’s box scores, just another way your baseball handicapping needs newspapers. Notice how many of the underdogs won. Even the worst teams in the league win about 40% of the time and these are the guys that are normally listed as heavy dogs. If you win just once out of three times with a more than +200 favorite, you are going to profit!

2. Fading Streaks – There are guys who like to bet against bad teams who are hot. Anytime you make a bet simply because it’s due, you are going to lose. Break this habit immediately.

3. Overvalue the Starter – Most of the time the lines are based off of the starting pitcher. However, in the modern era of baseball the starters go between 5-6 innings, so you’ll need to factor in the bullpen. We especially like handicapping closers. Don’t put all of your eggs in a basket that only takes care of a little more than half of the game.

4. Failure to Completely Analyze the Game: Too many bettors focus in on one thing or another. One trend or one hot aspect of the game does not a winner make. Winning isn’t simple so you are going to have to go deep into the stats and look at every different facet. Sure the starting pitcher might be hot, but how is his run support or how has the team been scoring since his last start? Is the bullpen overworked? Does the opposition have hot bats? Make sure you scrutinize all of the different angles instead of locking in on one of your favorites and forcing something to work.

We know that winning with your picks isn’t as easy as some people think as evidenced by our article on baseball betting mistakes, but if you work at it and avoid these baseball handicapping mistakes you’ll be ahead of the game and ready to profit over the internet sportsbooks this summer.

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Written by Jimmy Boyd on July 12, 2008 · Filed Under Baseball Betting Articles

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