Baylor at Texas Football Predictions and Odds

Written by Steve Janus on November 5, 2008

The Texas Longhorns attempt to forget about their first loss of the season at the hands of Texas Tech in their Week 11 match up at home against the Baylor Bears. Baylor has traditionally been the doormat of the Big 12, and this season hasn’t been much different, though they did surprise a lot of people by hanging in their game last week against a very good Missouri team. This week, however, they are back on the road and playing the number five team in the nation. Texas has won 10 in a row against the Bears and holds a dominating 71-22 record in the series. Oddsmakers are expecting a blowout by the Longhorns who are 27.5 point favorites over Baylor with the total set at 65.5 points.

Baylor hasn’t been as lacking on the offensive side of the ball as they have in past years. The Bears have managed to put up 27 points per game and nearly 380 yards of total offense. A big reason for the offense’s success has been freshman QB, Robert Griffin, who is a threat through the air and on the ground. He’s scored 21 TDs for Baylor, by far the most on the team, 11 of them through the air, 10 on the ground. Griffin and the Baylor offense will have their hands full this weekend, however, with an angry and motivated Texas defense to worry about.

As good as the Bears’ offense has been this season, their defense has been equally bad. Baylor opponents are averaging 28 points per game and near 400 yards of total offense against them, and all signs point to those numbers increasing against a Longhorn offense that has put up impressive numbers against even some of the better defenses in the Big 12. As bad as the defense is, keep in mind that the Bears are getting 27.5 points at BetUs.com, nearly four TDs.

One of the most prolific offenses in all of college football, the Texas Longhorns have been nothing short of impressive in the majority of their games this year. Colt McCoy and company are thrashing opponents for 474 yards per game and they’ve been able to turn that yardage into points, scoring an impressive 44.2 points per contest. McCoy’s completion percentage has been ridiculous this year, he’s completing nearly 80% of his passes, which has resulted in over 2,500 yards, 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions. This week should be a field day for the Texas offense against a Baylor defense that simply isn’t on the same level.

Texas has been solid on defense, but it is the weakness of the team. They’ve given up 20 points per game, which is usually enough to get them past just about anyone, but the 361 total yards they are giving up could easily turn into more points for opposing offenses if the Longhorns don’t shore up some of their gaps. Luckily, the offense can usually bail this team out, but if you’re looking for a chink the Texas’s armor, it’s probably on this side of the ball. Even with some of their defensive struggles the Longhorns are huge favorites Saturday, SportsBook.com has the best odds on the favorite setting Texas -27.5.

Don’t put out any upset alerts on Texas, who should have a pretty easy week at home against Baylor this week. The four touchdown spread is probably spot on, but this could easily get out of hand because Baylor doesn’t have the talent of Texas and they’ve struggled so heavily on defense this year. Texas might just be looking for someone to beat up on after their only loss of the season, so don’t be surprised to see the Longhorns rack up the points.

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