2011 Belmont Stakes Predictions
The 143rd running of the Belmont Stakes isn’t catching nearly as many headlines as it would have had Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom not come up a 1/2-length behind Shackleford in the Preakness Stakes.
With the Triple Crown out of play, Animal Kingdom will now be racing to become the first horse since Thunder Gulch (1995) and the 12th overall to pull off the Kentucky Derby-Belmont Stakes sweep.
Shackleford will try to become the 22nd horse to accomplish the Preakness Stakes-Belmont Stakes combo and the first ever to win the Belmont from post No. 12.
We have seen a trend of long shots coming through in recent Triple Crown races. Animal Kingdom won the Derby at 21-to-1 and Shackleford took Pimlico by storm at 13-to-1. We even saw Drosselmeyer win last year’s Belmont at 13-to-1.
A $2 Trifecta wager on Drosselmeyer, Fly Down and First Dude paid $766.00 in the 2010 Belmont. Below, I have listed my attempt at this year’s Trifecta.
Win: Nehro (4/1) – Sitting out the Preakness Stakes was a strategic move by Nehro’s camp. Now, he’ll be fresh for the the 1 1/2-mile path he’s about to face. The son of Mineshaft, who produced 2007 Belmont Stakes winner Rags to Riches, is bred for distance. He has finished in the top two in each of his last four races with three consecutive second-place finishes in the Arkansas, Louisiana and Kentucky Derbies. He likely would have won both the Arkansas and Louisiana Derby races had those been longer than 1 1/8 miles as he appeared to have plenty left in each. He can definitely get this distance and his freshness could be the deciding factor.
Place: Animal Kingdom (2/1) – There’s not much meat on the bone for Animal Kingdom backers as odds makers know he can win this race and anticipate a lot of action coming his way. He has been,without a doubt, the most impressive horse in this year’s Triple Crown races. He kicked hard to win the Derby by 2 3/4 lengths and finished a close second in the Preakness. He’s shown speed, the ability to stalk and a strong kick in the homestretch. This horse has finished no worse than second in six career races with three wins. His performance in the Derby proves he can get the distance, but he was much fresher then having not ran since March 26.
Show: Mucho Macho Man (10/1) – All this horse does is find the money. He’s finished third or better in eight of 10 career starts. He took sixth in the Preakness Stakes his last time out but also lost a shoe out of the gate so I’m throwing that performance out the window. Mucho Macho Man finished third behind Nehro in the Louisiana Derby and the Kentucky Derby and I believe that’s where he’ll stay. Still, this horse is worth a shot when you consider the kind of value he’s showing at 10-to-1. He likely wouldn’t be priced so favorably had he hit the board at Pimlico last month. Like the two aforementioned horses, Mucho Macho Man should be able to get the distance.
Past Belmont Predictions
