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Why Big Brown Wins the Triple Crown

We went through some pros and cons of Big Brown winning the 2008 Triple Crown following his Kentucky Derby win. Now, after he won the Preakness Stakes, it's time for us to take another look at the top reasons Big Brown will win the Triple Crown. With all the close calls I gave you since our last Triple Crown winner in my past Triple Crown contenders article, you know it's never a lock, but Big Brown does have several factors going in his favor.

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Freak of Nature – I mean this in the same way that I consider LeBron James or Dwight Howard a freak in their sport. They look imposing and they are imposing. If you have seen Big Brown run in either the Derby or the Preakness then I don't need to explain. The things that matter for other horses in the past haven't for Big Brown - things like post position and hoof injuries. His jockey didn't allow him to go all out on the back stretch in the Preakness and he still won impressively.

Unimpressive Field – This is a touchy one because Big Brown isn't facing scrubs, he is just making them look that way. The Preakness Field was considerably weaker than the Derby field however, and outside of Casino Drive the early Belmont contenders aren't sending shivers down the spine of Big Brown's people. Looking back at our last two Triple Crown winners we see that outside of Alydar, Affirmed's competition was rather weak. Seattle Slew also beat a bunch of horses that ran the Derby and then tried to come back in the Preakness. There's no question that Big Brown is better than his peers, but you always have to watch out for the Birdstone's.

Explosion – Big Brown obviously has another gear that his competitors either don't have or haven't showed us. He hung close to the pack in both of his wins in the first two legs before shifting into that extra gear to run away with both races. Few horses in history have showed this kind of acceleration.

Distance – The demise of some Triple Crown hopefuls has been the long 1.5-mile Belmont distance. But we have no reason to believe that it will conquer Big Brown. He looked like he still had plenty left after the Derby and the Preakness appeared to be a warm up lap.

Hot Trainer – Rick Dutrow Jr. is on fire. While Big Brown is no doubt a special horse, he isn't the only noise maker in Dutrow's barn. On the same day that Big Brown won the Florida Derby, Dutrow also won two races in the Dubai World Cup with Diamond Stripes and Benny the Bull. When you're winning, you have no reason to change what you're doing. He is about the only trainer in the field which can afford that luxury.

Experienced Jockey – Kent Desormeaux is the best possible jock to be on Big Brown. He came within a nostril of winning the Triple Crown with Real Quiet in 1998. He knows the pressure of these spots and I think that will play to his advantage.

We're due – This is my favorite argument and the least supported, but I'll throw it in here nevertheless. It's been 30 years since our last one and we've had 10 close call since. It has to be time, right?

May 22nd, 2008