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Can Big Brown Win the Triple Crown

Every year, after the Kentucky Derby, horse racing enthusiasts start up that Triple Crown talk. So this year, just as we did last year and most every year, we have to ask that same question: can the Kentucky Derby winner win the Triple Crown? It hasn't happened since Affirmed last pulled it off in 1978 so I don't know if it's pure hope talking, but this year seems to be the best shot we've had in quite some time. Let's take a look at some pros and cons of Big Brown winning the Triple Crown to see if we're just fishing or if it could be a reality on the 30th anniversary since the last one.

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Pros:

Weak Competition – Big Brown was the best horse in the Kentucky Derby by far and none of the horses in the Preakness look as good on paper as the elite Derby horses. With only one Derby horse a possibility in the Preakness, we have to like Big Brown's chances at Pimlico. The unbeaten Harlem Rocker looks to be his biggest competition there, but no one is trying to say that he is in the same class – not even his team. The Belmont Stakes will undoubtedly be tougher as a few of the Derby horses will likely take another shot. Tale of Ekati and Denis of Cork seem poised to take a shot for sure. Casino Drive is maybe the only other horse on my radar with an outside shot at this point and he only has one race under his belt, but he did win it by 11.5 lengths. The thing that makes him interesting is that his dam also gave birth to 2006 Belmont winner Jazil and 2007 Belmont winner Rags to Riches. Pedigree may have to hold true to prevent the Triple Crown.

Extremely Talented – Triple Crown horses are once in a lifetime horses, usually with freakish speed and Big Brown certainly looks to be that. He has won all four of his races by a landslide. But just because you are a talented horse, it doesn't make you a shoe in. We've seen other freaks fall like Silver Charm. However, there is not anyone out there right now doubting that he has enough talent to win the final two legs if everything comes together.

Fresh – One of Big Brown's knocks heading into the Derby was his lack of experience, but this could also turn out to be an advantage as he is still relatively fresh, which makes it easier to conquer three races in a short period of time than if he had already ran six or seven times.

It's Time – I stand by my words that is God is a Cubs fan, the North Siders will win a World Series this year on the 100th Anniversary since their last one. So I'll say here that if God is a horse racing enthusiast, we'll see a Triple Crown winner on the 30th Anniversary since it last happened. This is never a great argument, but it does have to be posed. We had Triple Crown Winners in 1973, 1977, and 1978 and not one since. 10 horses have won the Derby and the Preakness since 1978 so we've got to be due, right?

Cons:

Inexperience – Big Brown is yet to find himself in a rough patch that he's had to work his way out of and likely because he has only run four times. That means that there is a lot of situations he has not seen and is not sure how to respond to. He's never taken a hard bump and been boxed in for example. He's also never stumbled out of the gate or had his jockey make an error. Sooner or later one of these things is going to happen to him and if it happens this week, he could go down in flames.

Health – One understated accomplishment of winning the Triple Crown is that a horse must make it through all three races without injury. With the couple of series injuries we've had with horses of late, I hope this jumps out at you more. Big Brown has been healthy so far, but he does have a history of foot injuries that kept him out of months of training as a two-year-old. He ran his races very spaced out prior to the Derby so running the Preakness close afterward could be too much strain for his feet to take.

Surprise Attack – In horse racing, we must always be on upset alert. Yes, it seems like Big Brown is head and shoulders better than the rest, but each year we are reminded time and time again that anything can happen on the track. Remember Smarty Jones back in 2004. He was an unbeaten Derby winner, with more experience than Big Brown, who crushed the field by 12 lengths in the Preakness. Most were calling him a lock to win the Belmont Stakes, but a 36-1 underdog named Birdstone kept this great horse from history.

May 12, 2008