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Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos NFL Lines & Picks

Written by Jimmy Boyd on December 17, 2008

bills-broncos

A win and the Denver Broncos are in with a two-game division lead on rival San Diego. That doesn’t figure to be much or a problem with a home game against one of the coldest teams in the NFL this week. Odds makers have listed the Broncos as 6.5-point favorites with the total set at 44.

While the Denver Broncos are sitting atop the AFC West, they have been a nightmare for backers. NFL picks on Denver are only 4-10 against the spread in 2008. What’s even worse is that the Broncos are 0-7 against the NFL odds at home. Denver has won four of its last six games but comes in off a blowout road loss to NFC South leading Carolina. While the Chargers play an early game and could send Denver to the playoffs with a loss before this one kicks off, head coach Mike Shanahan says he will have TV’s in the locker room turned off and doesn’t want the score to appear in the stadium. He knows he still has a relatively young team that needs to play better football or its going to be an early trip home from the playoffs. I commend him for wanting to play out the season no matter what. Jay Cutler has had a solid season with 3,851 yards and 24 touchdowns but he had a rough game last week. Cutler was under consistent pressure against the Panthers. He was sacked three times and was picked off once. Cutler had only 172 yards passing. I look for him to bounce back this week against a Bills defense that has been hurt by the pass. Buffalo is allowing opposing QB’s to complete 66.5 percent of their passes on the road while allowing 24.2 ppg. The passing game can be helped out if Denver can get its running game going. The Broncos had 121 yards last week but 58 of those came on its final drive when the game was already out of reach. P.J. Pope gave the Broncos a bit of a spark with 51 yards rushing. Selvin Young played himself into the doghouse with a fumble in the final seconds of the first half. He didn’t play in the second half. Denver has struggled to run the football consistently all season because of its injury problems at the position so the Broncos will likely have to pass their way to another win. If you like Denver to get it done through the air, bet the Broncos at -6.5 at Bookmaker.

Since a 5-1 start, the Bills have dropped seven of their last eight games. NFL betting on them during that eight game stretch has accounted for only two winners against six losers. History gives the slight edge to the Bills this week, however. While Denver has won five of the last seven matchups, the Bills are 4-3 against the spread in those games. Most recently, Buffalo covered the spread against Denver last season with a one-point loss as a 3-point underdog.

Denver’s defense has been far from solid this season, allowing 26.1 ppg. Denver is allowing 4.9 yards per carry on the ground and will face a good Bills running attack this week. Buffalo gashed the Jets for 187 rushing yards last Sunday and it has gained 156 or more in four of the last five weeks. They did their damage last Sunday against a Jets team ranked fourth in the NFL in run defense. Marshawn Lynch gained 127 yards and Fred Jackson added 31 yards and an 11-yard TD run. If you think Buffalo’s running attack can lead it to an upset here, bet the Bills at +6.5 at Bookmaker.