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2008 Poinsettia Bowl Odds – Boise State v. TCU Football Picks & Predictions

Written by Jimmy Boyd

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Perhaps the most anticipated Pre-New Year’s Day bowl goes off Tuesday December 23rd when 9th ranked Boise State takes on 11th ranked TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl in sunny San Diego. Odds makers are expecting a tight contest and have listed TCU as 3-point favorites with the total set at 46.

Boise State is well know for its BCS bowl upset of Oklahoma two years ago when it used a dazzling trick play to take down the Sooners. Though Boise State is unbeaten at 12-0, it was not able to find its way back to a BCS game, and furthermore, it finds itself in the underdog role again. The Broncos may have to have a few more tricks up their sleeves to beat one of the best defenses in football. The 10-2 TCU Horned Frogs boast the second-ranked defense in the country.

While Boise State was truly dominant this season, winning its games by an average of 27.2 points, the Broncos knew they were a longshot to earn one of the two at-large BCS bids, especially since fellow mid-major Utah was also unbeaten and ranked two spots higher. Ohio State gained the other at-large bid despite Boise State being ranked one spot higher in the final BCS standings. You could call that a bit of a snub, but Boise will look to prove their worth on the field against a formidable foe.

Boise State is coming off its sixth straight WAC title and faces a TCU team which has only lost to No. 2 Oklahoma and No. 10 Utah. Playing a softer schedule is why the Broncos see themselves as the underdogs. The Broncos have faced just one ranked team this season, then-No. 17 Oregon on Sept. 20. They led the Ducks 34-13 before winning 37-32 in Eugene. Boise State will try to use its 12th-ranked, offense which averages 39.4 points per game to take TCU.

TCU’s defense has been something to marvel at this season, holding opponents to only 10.9 points per game. Only the USC Trojans were better in that department (7.8 ppg). TCU has the top-ranked rushing defense in the land, holding opponents to a ridiculous 48.7 yards per game. The next nearest team in that category is Texas which allowed 24.9 more yards per game on the ground. Defensive end Jerry Hughes will be a player to watch for. He led the nation with 14 sacks and 18.5 tackles for loss. If you think the Horned Frogs defense will get the job done, bet TCU at -3 at Bookmaker.

Boise State, though, has an offense which got better and better as the season went on. The Broncos averaged a whopping 49 points per game over their last five contests. Boise State saved its best for last, reaching a season high in points against rival Fresno State in a 61-10 season-finale win.

QB Kellen Moore led the WAC with a 161.5 passer rating while completing 70 percent of his passes for 3,264 yards and 25 touchdowns against just nine interceptions. The Broncos have also been able to get the job done on the ground with tailbacks Ian Johnson and Jeremy Avery who help the team gain 183.5 yards per contest on the ground. The two talented rushers have combined for 1,416 yards and 16 touchdowns this season. If you think the Broncos offense will be up to the challenge, bet Boise State at +3 at Bookmaker.

TCU’s offense has been overshadowed by its defense all season long but it has not been a side of the ball that any team can sleep on. The Frogs have spread the football around and have five players with at least 399 yards rushing. Their strong ball control offense has helped them to lead the country in time of possession. TCU ranks 13th in the land in rushing offense, racking up 215.6 yards per game. This strong running attack has helped open things up for QB Andy Dalton. Dalton has not showed the accuracy or Moore (just 58.8 percent), but he has played mostly mistake-free football, passing for 2,045 yards with 11 touchdowns against just four picks.

Oddly enough, in opposite fashion of TCU, the Broncos defense, which is ranked third in the nation in scoring (12.3 points per game) flies under the radar. Boise State also ranks 15th against the run, giving up 104.9 yards a contest.

This will just be the second meeting between these two teams. They first met in 2003 in the Fort Worth Bowl. The 19th ranked Horned Frogs were edged out by the 18th ranked Broncos 34-31.

Make sure you’re doing your football betting on Jimmy Boyd’s NCAA football picks throughout the bowl season for the most winners against the college football odds.

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