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Bowling Green at Buffalo Football Odds & Picks

Written by Jimmy Boyd

The Bowling Green Falcons take on the Buffalo Bulls this Tuesday night at UB Stadium in Buffalo, New York in a MAC East showdown on ESPN 2. Both teams sit at 3-5 following losses in their last game. Bowling Green fell at home to Central Michigan by two touchdowns and Buffalo lost a tough one on the road to Western Michigan. These two teams last met in November of 2008 with Buffalo earning a 40-34 double overtime road win. Football odds makers are expecting another close one, listing Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.

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There is one thing we can count on from Bowling Green Tuesday night and that’s a pass-heavy attack. The Falcons live and die through the air with QB Tyler Sheehan and wide receiver Freddie Barnes as they only average 61.6 rushing yards per contest. Sheehan is having a terrific season, completing 65 percent of his passes for 2,677 yards and 15 touchdowns against only five interceptions. Barnes, a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist, has been on the receiving end of most of Sheehan’s passes. Barnes leads the nation with 99 receptions, 1,054 receiving yards, and nine receiving scores. To put his dominance in perspective, the second best receiver in the catches and yards categories has 37 less receptions and 173 less yards. Bowling Green is averaging 429 yards of offense in road games so it should be able to move the football. The key will be capitalizing on its red zone opportunities. The Falcons were just 1 of 5 in the red zone against Central Michigan, losing a fumble and throwing an interception on two of those possessions.

Defensively, Bowling Green must be able do defend the run as Buffalo runs the football pretty well, averaging 162 rushing yards per game at home. On the season, the Falcons are giving up 201.7 yards per game on the ground on 5.7 yards per carry. It is worth noting that the Falcons are 9-2 against the number in their last 11 road games. If you like the Falcons to take care of business on the road this week, bet Bowling Green at +3 at BetUS.

Like Bowling Green, the passing game is Buffalo’s strength. Buffalo’s standout hook up combo features QB Zach Maynard, who has thrown for at least 210 yards in each of Buffalo’s last seven games, and wide receiver Naaman Roosevelt, the best receiver in Bulls history. While the Bulls figure to be able to gobble up some yardage through the air, running the football could be the key to winning this football game as Bowling Green has struggled to stop the run. The loss of James Starks was a big blow initially, but tailback Ike Nduka is catapulting himself into a starring role in the offense with three straight 100 yard rushing games.

Buffalo has been its own worst enemy much of the season with 17 giveaways and only six takeaways. Special teams has also been an issue. The Bulls rank 94th or lower in net punting yards, punt returns and kickoff returns. In other words, the field position has not often been in Buffalo’s favor. Buffalo can’t afford to shoot itself in the foot this week with giveaways or special teams blunders against a Bowling Green offense capable of exploding. It is worth noting that Buffalo is 9-2 against the spread in weeks 10-13 under coach Turner Gill. If you like the Bulls to bounce back at home this week, bet Buffalo at -3 at BetUS.

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