Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills Line

After six straight weeks of playing competitive football, either winning or losing by no more three points, the Buffalo Bills were crushed 38-14 at Minnesota. That loss certainly came as a shocker to the books, which closed with Buffalo as just a 5.5-point underdog.

One poor performance is not enough for NFL odds makers to turn their backs on Buffalo, however.  In fact, they are giving the Bills the slight edge at home against Cleveland this week, listing them as a 1-point favorite with the total set at 40.

Buffalo must do a better job against the run if it is going to notch its third win of the season Sunday. The Bills have the worst run defense in the NFL, allowing 170.9 yards per game on the ground. They have allowed nine of their last 10 opponents to run for 105 or more yards and six of those 10 teams broke the 200-yard mark.

With this in mind, Buffalo could have its work cut out for itself against Cleveland’s running attack. Led by running back Peyton Hillis, the Browns have broken the century mark on the ground in four of their last six games. Hillis ranks 10th in the league with 962 yards rushing and is second among running backs with 13 total touchdowns.

While the running game remains the key for Cleveland, the Browns have to be inspired by the performance of Jake Delhomme in last week’s win. Delhomme played his best game in a long time, completing 24 of 34 passes for 217 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions.

Rookie Colt McCoy, who took over the starting job earlier this season, remains questionable for Sunday’s contest with an ankle injury.

It is worth noting that Cleveland is 15-2 against the spread in its last 17 road games versus a team with a losing home record.

The big key for Buffalo, other than slowing down Cleveland’s running game, is taking care of the football. The Bills committed five turnovers against the Vikings last Sunday. Winning is hard enough without making mistakes, let alone five of them.

The Cleveland run defense has really struggled lately, allowing 145.5 yards rushing per game the last four weeks. With this in mind, running back Fred Jackson could be set for a big day. Keep in mind that Buffalo’s only wins this season have come in games where Jackson has broken the century mark on the ground.

This one looks like it will come down to which team takes better care of the football and runs it more effectively.

The Bills have been extremely profitable for backers in recent weeks, going 5-1-1 against the number in their last seven games. It is also worth noting that they are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 3.0 or fewer points.