Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins Spread

The 1-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the 3-5 Miami Dolphins in a Sunshine State showdown this Sunday. Last week, the Bucs got on the board with their first win of the season, a 38-28 upset over the Green Bay Packers. Miami put in a good effort against New England but ultimately fell 27-17. These two teams have not met since the 2005 season when the Bucs won 27-13 behind a big day from running back Michael Pittman. The Buccaneers have won the last three meetings in this series, but NFL odds makers expect that run to come to an end Sunday, listing the Miami Dolphins as 10-point favorites with the total set at 43.

It’s no secret that Miami wants to run the football with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, who have already combined for over 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. But when teams are daring the Dolphins to pass it, Chad Henne must be up to the task. In his first two career starts, Henne was playing like an old vet, completing over 70 percent of his passes with three touchdown strikes and no interceptions. It must have been a little beginner’s luck because his completion rate  has dropped to under 54 percent and he has thrown for just one touchdown against two interceptions in his last three starts. Not surprisingly, the Dolphins won each of his first two starts and they are just 1-2 in his last three. If Tampa Bay is able to slow down Miami’s running attack, Henne will have to deliver.

Defensively, expect a big game from Joey Porter who has seven sacks in just three career games against the Buccaneers. He’ll be looking to welcome Bucs’ rookie QB Josh Freeman to the NFL properly with some bone-crunching hits. It is worth noting that the Buccaneers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

So far so good for Bucs QB Josh Freeman who led his team to victory in his first career NFL start to end their winless streak. It wasn’t as if Freeman just managed the game either as he threw for 221 yards and three touchdowns against only one interception. He also did some damage with his legs, rushing five times for 25 yards. And he’ll have the opportunity to go after a pair of rookie cornerbacks this week (Vontae Davis, Sean Smith). The bad news is that he could be without big play wide receiver Antonio Bryant who is listed as questionable with a knee injury.

Defensively, teams have started to have more and more success against Miami’s Wildcat. Stopping it will be essential to pulling off the upset Sunday. While stopping the Wildcat is a team effort, middle linebacker Barrett Ruud is the extension of the coach on the field, and it will be his responsibility to get his teammates in the proper positions to shut it down. Plus, Ruud’s reads will be crucial to keeping the Wildcat from going for big yards if Ronnie Brown is able to break through the first layer of the defense. It is worth noting that the Dolphins are only 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite.