Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos Line

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This Sunday the Denver Broncos will look to stay hot when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05 EST at Sports Authority Field at Mile High and will be televised locally on FOX. Oddsmakers currently have Denver listed as a 7-point home favorite with the total set at 50 points.

Why Tampa Bay Will Cover:

The Buccaneers had a chance to take over the second Wild Card spot this past week with a win over Atlanta, but they squandered a 23-17 lead in the 4th quarter to snap their four-game winning streak. Tampa Bay is battling Minnesota and Seattle but the Seahawks hold the tie-breaker which means Tampa Bay has a lot of work to do over the final four weeks of the season.

Tampa Bay appears to be showing a lot of value this week as a 7-point underdog. Tampa Bay hasn’t lost a single game all season by more than a touchdown and I don’t think people realize just how well this team has been playing of late. You also have to factor in that Peyton Manning and the Broncos are one of the more popular teams in the NFL at the moment. The public has quickly fallen in love with this team and it’s not all that surprising given their current winning streak. Oddsmakers have taken advantage of this by setting the Broncos lines too high. Denver has failed to cover the number in two straight games.

The Buccaneers offense could pose a threat in this one, despite the Broncos impressive numbers. Denver ranks 5th in the NFL against the pass (209.6 ypg) and 9th against the run (98.7 ypg). We saw Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs help Kansas City rush for 148 yards against that Denver defense and earlier this season the Patriots put up 251 yards on the ground. Tampa Bay has one of the most electrifying backs in the NFL in Doug Martin, and I think his speed and agility will give the Broncos front seven a lot of trouble. Denver is going to have to load the box to try and stop Martin, which should open up some passing lanes for quarterback Josh Freeman to exploit.

Tampa Bay is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons and are a perfect 6-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points during that stretch.

Why Denver Will Cover:

With the Broncos 17-9 win at Kansas City this past weekend, they have now won six straight after a rocky 2-3 start. This team is playing with all kinds of confidence right now and to no surprise they just keep getting better with each week Manning is under center.

While the Buccaneers have shown the ability to keep games close, Denver has been able to put away teams during their recent string of wins. All six of their wins during their current winning streak have came by a touchdown or more and all eight of their wins this season have been by at least 7 points. If you like the Broncos to win this game, you can’t be afraid of laying only a touchdown given their success to this point.

The key to this game is the Buccaneers defense figures to have no answer for Manning and the Broncos passing attack. Tampa Bay ranks dead last in the NFL in pass defense, giving up a ridiculous 315.5 ypg. They have really struggled against the elite quarterbacks they have faced. Eli Manning of the Giants torched the Bucs secondary for 510 yards in week 2, Drew Brees went off for 402 yards and Matt Ryan just this past week threw for 345.

With Manning running the show, Denver should be able to score at will in this game. Hard to imagine that the Buccaneers offense will be able to keep pace and not allow the Broncos to build a big lead. It really all comes down to the play of the Broncos defense and given the fact that Denver can wrap up the AFC West with a win on Sunday, I expect a very strong effort from the stop unit in this one.

About the Author: Steve will be the first to tell you that College Football is his passion, but he enthusiastically follows the NFL, NBA, College Hoops, and Major League Baseball. Get started today with a premium package from Steve Janus!
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