Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons Line

The Arizona Cardinals and the Atlanta Falcons are set to do battle for the first time since the 2008 season when they faced off in the playoffs. Arizona defeated Atlanta 30-24 at home on its way to representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. As you might recall, Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald had a big day, catching six passes for 101 yards and a touchdown. However, we could see a different result this time around with Atlanta now enjoying the home field advantage. The Cardinals have lost their last four road contests in this series. That’s part of the reason why NFL odds makers have listed the Falcons as a 6.5-point favorite with the total set at 43.

Both of these teams struggled offensively in Week 1. Atlanta was unable to get anything going on the ground against a strong Pittsburgh defense. Star running back Michael Turner was held to just 42 yards as Atlanta only managed 9 total points.

Arizona’s offensive struggles weren’t surprising since Kurt Warner is no longer leading the charge. Derek Anderson was able to beat out Matt Leinart in the preseason, but it is clear he still has some work to do if he is going to lead the Cards to the playoffs. He completed just 53.7 percent of his throws last week, and was only able to find Fitzgerald three times.

Anderson will perform better if he gets some help from the running game. Tim Hightower, who gained just 54 yards and lost two fumbles, clearly isn’t the kind of game-changing back a team can rely on. However, Beanie Wells, who rushed for 793 yards as a rookie, appears to be that kind of back, and he is expected to return Sunday.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is considered one of the best young signal callers in the game, but like Anderson, will benefit from a better running attack. Despite facing one of the league’s best defenses last week, Ryan was able to complete 27 of 44 passes for 252 yards. And he had no trouble finding top target Roddy White, who was on the receiving end of 13 of those completions for 111 yards.

The Falcons made the playoffs in Ryan’s rookie season when they ranked second in the league in rushing. That year, Turner rushed for 1,699 yards. Partially due to an ankle injury, Turner only gained 871 yards on the ground last season, as the Falcons ranked just 15th in the league in rushing offense.

Running the football effectively is the key to Atlanta returning to the postseason.

In terms of the point spread, there are some impressive numbers in favor of the Falcons. First off, Atlanta is 8-0 against the spread in its last eight games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game. It is also 13-3 against the number in its last 16 games following a straight up loss.

As far as the total is concerned, these two teams have combined to finish over the number in seven of their last eight meetings.

My early lean is on Atlanta -6.5 and over 43, but make sure you check back Sunday to see my final NFL picks as I continue to research this matchup.