San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots Spread
The New England Patriots are coming off their best offensive performance in the 52-year history of the franchise, but an encore could be tough against a San Diego Chargers squad that led the NFL in total defense last season.
The Pats picked up right where they left off in Week 1. The NFL’s highest scoring team in 2010 wasted no time exploding for 622 yards in a 38-24 win at Miami.
Yards may not come as easily this week, however, against a Chargers’ stop unit that allowed a league-low 271.6 yards per game last year.
San Diego held Minnesota to 187 yards in its 24-17 victory last Sunday. No team held their opponent to fewer yards in Week 1.
The Patriots have had the edge in this matchup in recent years, and odds makers have given them the advantage again Sunday. The Patriots are currently listed as a 6.5-point favorite with the total set at 53.5.
New England has won four of the last five meetings in this series, including a 23-20 win at San Diego last October.
San Diego knows it will have to slow down Tom Brady to have a chance. Brady threw for a career-high 517 yards with four touchdowns and one interception against the Dolphins.
Brady has led the Patriots to 28 consecutive regular-season home wins but will likely have to earn a 29th-straight Sunday.
The Chargers held six-time Pro Bowl quarterback Donovan McNabb to 39 passing yards last week. Brady was just 19 of 32 for 128 yards and was sacked four times in last year’s win over the Bolts, who led the league with 177.8 passing yards allowed per game.
Brady has thrown 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while going 5-2 in his career against San Diego.
He’s certainly gotten the better of Philip Rivers, who is only 1-4 against New England. His 78.4 passer rating against the Pats is his lowest against any AFC opponent.
Rivers, who was 33 of 48 for 335 yards with two TDs and two interceptions in Week 1, could be poised for a big day against a New England defense that gave up 416 yards through the air to Chad Henne.
Pass defense was an issue for the Patriots last season when they ranked 30th in the league with 258.5 yards allowed per game.
This one may be tough to call considering both teams have performed well against the number in this point-spread range.
The Patriots are 13-4 against the spread in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10.0 points while the Chargers are 10-3-1 against the spread in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 points.
The underdog has covered the spread in six of the last eight meetings between these teams.
As far as the total is concerned, these two have played to the under in four of the last five meetings. They have played to the over, however, in four of the last five meetings in New England.
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