2011 Chicago Cubs Predictions
From 2007-2009 the Chicago Cubs won two division titles and recorded at least 83 victories each season. Unfortunately, the Cubbies took a big step back in 2010, winning only 75 games to finish fifth in the division. After Lou Piniella stepped down, they did end the 2010 season on a 24-13 run under manager Mike Quade. That finish at least gives them some momentum to ride into their 2011 campaign. MLB odds makers have listed the Chicago Cubs at +4000 to win the 2011 World Series.
Pitching: The Chicago rotation isn’t what it was when the Cubs won back-to-back division crowns in 2007 and 2008. We aren’t sure what to expect from the current group as the new season nears, mainly because we don’t know what to expect from former ace Carlos Zambrano.
Biz Z was a train wreck through most of 2010, forcing the team to demote him to the bullpen among. But somehow he regained his stuff late in the season and went 8-0 with a 1.41 ERA over his last 11 starts. The Cubs could make a little more noise than expected if that Zambrano shows up.
Ryan Dempster has been extremely consistent for Chicago. He has gone 43-27 the last three seasons with three straight sub-4.00 ERAs. Zambrano and Dempster are expected to be joined by Randy Wells, Carlos Silva and newcomer Matt Garza. The Cubs need Wells to bounce back from an 8-14 season, and they’re looking for Silva to pitch the way he did to start 2010 (8-0 start).
I really like Garza, who went 15-10 with a 3.91 ERA for Tampa Bay a season ago. He has the potential to be downright dominant outside the tough AL East.
Carlos Marmol frustrates at times with too many walks, but the guy is still one of the best relievers in the game. He set a major league record last season with 15.99 strikeouts per nine innings. He also recorded 38 saves. Chicago has brought back Kerry Wood as well to provide some more stability in the eighth.
Lineup: The Cubs desperately need third baseman Aramis Ramirez to stay healthy, as he is such a big part of their run production. He hit 25 home runs and drove in 83 total runs in just 124 games a season ago. He’ll be joined in the middle of the order by center fielder Marlon Byrd, who was the Cubs’ lone All-Star in 2010.
Joining Byrd out by the ivy wall is Alfonso Soriano and Tyler Colvin. Soriano has been good for the Cubs, but not good enough to earn his monster paycheck. Through four seasons, he’s averaged 26.5 homers and 13 steals. The Cubs had hoped they were getting the guy who hit 40 bombs and had 40 steals with Washington in 2006. Colvin is likely to take over for Kosuke Fukudome after hitting 20 round trippers in 358 at-bats. I’m extremely curious to see what he is capable of doing over the course of an entire season.
Shortstop Starlin Castro, second baseman Blake DeWitt and first baseman Carlos Pena are expected to join Ramirez in the infield. Castro looks to be a star in the making after hitting .300 at a rookie. DeWitt will likely share some time with Darwin Barney and Jeff Baker, but the Cubs liked what they saw when he hit .314 in day games last year. Pena has been one of the game’s best power hitters in recent years, but have the Cubs come across him to late? He had 28 round trippers and 84 RBIs for the Rays in 2010 but only hit .196.
The Cubs have a good one behind home plate in Geovany Soto. After a down 2009, he appears to be on the way back up after hitting .280 with 17 jacks in 105 games last season.
Prediction – 4th Place NL Central: The Cubs have the potential to contend for the Central if Zambrano can pitch like he did down the stretch, if Garza can duplicate his 2010 numbers, if Pena can hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 and if Ramirez can stay healthy. And those aren’t the only ifs. Usually this many ifs don’t work out. The Cubs are listed at +350 to win the NL Central.
