Chuck Liddell v. Renato Sobral

Chuck Liddell v. Renato Sobral is coming up on August 26th in UFC 62.  If you want to be on top of things then read our preview with a nice prediction at the end.  It’s been almost four years since “The Ice Man” put “Babalu” to sleep with a shin to the face at UFC 40, but you can bet the 30 year old Brazilian challenger remembers it like it was yesterday. That knockout loss marked the first and only time Babalu has been stopped in mixed martial arts competition, and it effectively demoted him to smaller MMA organizations for the next three years. In that time, Babalu put together a stellar winning streak, notching victories over many notable competitors, including Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, a man considered by many to be one of the top five, if not top three, light heavyweights in the world today. Babalu has developed into one of the most well rounded fighters in his weight class. He has a solid stand-up game to compliment his outstanding wrestling and submission skills, but make no mistake; Babalu wants his fights on the ground. Never will this have been truer than when he takes to the cage against the 205 lbs champion this Saturday.

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As impressive as Babalu’s dominance over the past several years has been, no one has a more proven track record than Chuck Liddell. While the 2002 KO might have come as a shock to Babalu, it was business as usual for the champion. Liddell’s career is a hit list of MMA superstars who have walked into a fight with him only to be carried out on a stretcher minutes later. He has made a living out of knocking out very good fighters who had never been knocked out before, just ask Randy Couture or Jeremy Horn. Liddell’s lethal stand-up has a way of making fighters look very human and very vulnerable, and I anticipate it will have this effect on Babalu at UFC 62.

Babalu’s three most recent victories have come against fighters tailor-made for his style: wrestlers with limited stand-up and a submission game light years behind his own. These were great fights for highlighting Babalu’s tools in front of a UFC audience, but they don’t tell us much about whether Babalu has evolved to the point where he’ll be able to handle Liddell. The Rua victory is certainly striking, but the 21 year old kid Babalu choked out in 2003 was hardly the same fighter that ripped apart the Pride light heavyweight division last year.

In the final analysis, this fight is fairly straightforward to me. Babalu is probably superior to Liddell in many facets of MMA. He has the ability to finish a fight in a multitude of ways and is comfortable fighting from any position in which he finds himself. Unfortunately for the challenger, the fact that Liddell has dynamite in his hands will negate every advantage Babalu may have. This match-up is not entirely dissimilar to Liddell-Horn II wherein Horn was a technically better fighter but simply lacked the ability to apply his talents in a way that could neutralize Liddell’s awesome strikes. The only way Babalu fairs any better is if he is able to use the size and strength he possesses (but which the natural 185 pounder Horn lacked) to get Liddell down to the mat. If he is able to do this and to do it for five rounds, there is a great chance Babalu wins a decision or perhaps even pulls off a submission.

I don’t see it happening. Liddell’s takedown defense is legendary. He’s successfully avoided being taken down by much better wrestlers than Babalu in the past, and he has only been submitted once in his career. He’ll be throwing almost exclusively punches to make himself less apt to be taken down, so don’t expect another kick to end this fight. Look for Liddell to paw with that long left jab, occasionally turning it over into a hook and following with the straight right. At some point, something will connect, and we all know it only takes one with Chuck.

Babalu is a terrific fighter, he has fought some of the best in the world, and he is very hungry for this victory, but his game simply doesn’t square up well with Liddell’s. Taking “The Ice Man” out is going to require a fighter with lethal stand-up; a fighter like Wanderlei Silva perhaps…

I know that Liddell is a pretty heavy favorite here, but we are still going to put our money on the champ as he still shows some value.