2011 Cincinnati Reds Predictions
The Cincinnati Reds were one of the best stories in baseball in 2010. They made a leap from fourth place to first with 91 wins to end a 15-year postseason drought. Duplicating last season’s performance will not be easy, especially since the Reds are now wearing the target. Baseball odds makers have listed the Cincinnati Reds at +2000 to win the 2011 World Series.
Pitching: The Reds have an underrated starting rotation in my opinion. Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto are all solid starters. The Reds are hoping that Volquez can return to the form that earned him an All-Star nod in 2008. While he only lasted 1.2 innings in his postseason start, he looked to be back while carrying a 1.95 ERA in his final four regular season starts.
Arroyo is a pure innings-eater. He gobbled up 215.2 innings while winning a career-high 17 games in 2010. He is one of only three major league pitchers to chew up at least 200 innings each of the last six seasons. Cueto is coming off a season in which he went 12-7 and led the Reds with a 3.64 ERA.
There will be a battle for the final two rotation slots this spring, but Homer Bailey and Travis Wood are the early favorites.
The bullpen could hold the Reds back in 2011 if Francisco Cordero doesn’t rediscover his form. He had eight blown saves a season ago, and his ERA ballooned to 6.75 for the month of September.
Lineup: Cincinnati’s lineup is built around NL MVP Joey Votto, who became just the fourth Reds player in history to hit at least .320 with 37 home runs and 113 RBIs. Votto also became the first Red to garner MVP honors since Barry Larkin in 1995.
Across the diamond, Votto is joined by third baseman Scott Rolen, who was named to his sixth All-Star team last season. Rolen is due to turn 36 at the beginning of the season and durability is a concern. He played in 133 games in 2010 and hit .285 with 20 home runs and 83 RBIs.
Second baseman Brandon Phillips and shortstop Paul Janish round out the infield. Phillips was named to his first All-Star team in 2010 and was one of only three players in the major leagues with at least 100 runs, 33 doubles, 18 home runs and 16 steals. Janish is a slick fielder, but his bat is lacking. The Reds can insert Edgar Renteria when they are looking for a little more pop at the plate. Janish also has the ability to spell Rolen at the hot corner.
Drew Stubbs, Jay Bruce and Johnny Gomes are a solid outfield trio. Last year, Stubbs became just the ninth Red with at least 20 round trippers and 30 stolen bases in a season. The club is big on Bruce, as evidenced by the six-year $51 million contract he received. The 24-year-old hit .281 with 25 jacks and 70 RBIs in 2010. Gomes is a defensive liability at times, but his bat is a major asset. He was second on the team with 86 RBIs last season.
Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan are once again expected to platoon behind home plate. Led by these two, Reds catchers led the NL with a .296 batting average last year.
Prediction – 3rd Place NL Central: The Reds very well could win the Central again, but it won’t be as easy now that everyone is gunning for them. At the end of the day, I think the Cards and Brewers both made impact moves during the offseason that should help them lead frog Cincy. The Reds are listed at +225 to win the NL Central.
