College Football Picks: Michigan State at Michigan

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Two in-state rivals will collide this weekend when the 18th ranked Michigan Wolverines host the 17th ranked Michigan State Spartans.  Both teams enter the game with undefeated records and are vying to make an early statement in Big Ten play.  Michigan State took advantage of some costly Wisconsin mistakes to pick up a 34-24 win over the Badgers last week.  The Wolverines needed some late magic by Denard Robinson to seal a 42-35 win over Indiana.  Michigan is a 5 point favorite.

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Michigan State has won their first five games of the season behind a strong running game and the consistent play of quarterback Kirk Cousins.  The Spartans are set to challenge for a conference title and would love nothing more than to defeat their hated rival in the process.  The team could get their leader back following Mark Dantonio’s release from the hospital earlier this week.  Kirk Cousins has been an extension of the coaching staff on the field this season.  He is completing more than 67% of his passes and has thrown for 1132 yards.  His touchdown to interception ratio is over 2:1 making Cousins one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country.  Sparty has utilized a two headed monster at running back to gain 220 yards per game.  Edwin Baker leads the team in rushing with 536 yards on 75 carries and five touchdowns.  Freshman Le’Veon Bell has been a nice surprise, gaining 471 yards and scoring a team high seven times.  A strong running game is needed in the Big Ten and these two should provide just that throughout conference play.  B.J Cunningham is part of a trio of talented receivers for State.  He has 17 receptions for 215 yards and three touchdowns.  Mark Dell provides senior leadership and has 16 catches for 263 yards.  Keshawn Martin rounds out the group with 16 receptions for 219 yards and a score.  Michigan State’s defense is led by All-American linebacker Greg Jones and is giving up just under 19 points per game.

When Michigan football is talked about this year, almost immediately the attention is turned to electric quarterback Denard Robinson.  Robinson has had an unprecedented start to his season and is currently the consensus leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy.  Twice Robinson has gone over 400 yards of total offense in a game and broke a school record with 502 yards against Notre Dame.  On the year, he has accounted for over 1900 yards of total offense and 15 touchdowns.  The sophomore is completing nearly 70% of his passes and has thrown only one interception.  Rich Rodriguez’s job might be saved by the play of Denard Robinson.  The Wolverines do have two other running backs that are capable of making big plays.  Vincent Smith and Michael Shaw have practically split carries down the middle.  Smith leads in yardage with 252 on 53 carries, but Shaw has five touchdowns to Smith’s four.  Michigan’s running attack ranks fourth nationally.  Roy Roundtree is a popular target through the air.  He leads the team with 25 receptions for 337 yards and two scores.  Darryl Stonum is second on the team with 15 catches for 226 yards and two additional touchdowns.  The glaring weakness on this squad is the play of the defense.  They are giving up 25.4 points per game.

Michigan State has won back to back games against Michigan since the 1966-67 season heading into this weekend’s match-up.  The Wolverines are just 2-7 at home in their last nine Big Ten games, but they did not have Denard Robinson starting at quarterback then.  I like the balance of the Michigan State offense and they do have some talented players on defense also.  Michigan’s defense scares me too much to lay the number in this game.  Take the points.

Play: Michigan State +5

 

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