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The Janus Report: Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers Free NFL Picks

The San Diego Chargers and the Indianapolis Colts meet in tonight’s AFC Wild Card playoff game.  It took these two teams much different paths to get to this point.  The Colts overcame a poor 3-4 start to their season, winning their final 9 games to earn their playoff spot.  The Chargers went 4-8 over the first 12 games of the season and were effectively written off for the playoffs.  San Diego stormed back, however, winning in their final 4 weeks of the regular season.  With a little help from the Broncos, who collapsed while the Chargers surged, San Diego ended up winning the AFC West, earning a playoff spot, plus the right to play on their home field in the first round.  With both teams playing their best football, tonight’s game is set up to be another exciting AFC playoff round.  The Colts are currently 1 point favorites over the Chargers.

Peyton Manning ended the regular season as the NFL’s Most Valuable Player, and while his performance flew a bit under the radar this year, it was certainly deserving of the award.  Manning racked up 4,002 passing yards and threw for 27 touchdowns compared to just 12 interceptions.  Manning was able to find his usual targets on a regular basis.  Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark led the way for Indianapolis, grabbing 82 and 77 receptions, respectively.  Something the Colts lacked on offense this season was their running game.  With injuries to Joseph Addai, the Colts pretty much abandoned the running game and ended the regular season ranked 31st in rushing offense with only 79.6 yards per game.

The Colts ended the 2008 regular season with some impressive defensive numbers.  They allowed just 18.6 points per game and had one of the best secondaries in the league, allowing only 6 touchdown passes on the season.  The Colts did struggle at times to stop the run, ranking just 24th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed.  Indy’s strength on defense comes from a strong pass rush and good coverage down field, they’ll just need to shore up their defensive front against LaDainian Tomlinson, who hasn’t had his most productive year, but who is still a threat to have a big game.

If you look just at the raw numbers for the season, San Diego QB Philip Rivers had a better season than his counterpart.  Rivers threw for 4,009 yards, 34 TDs, 11 INTs, and led the NFL in passing rating at 105.5.  As I said earlier, LaDainian Tomlinson has struggled a bit this season, gaining 1,110 yards and scoring 12 touchdowns.  That would be considered a pretty productive year for most backs, but as Tomlinson is considered one of the best in the league, those numbers fell well short of expectations.

San Diego’s defense this season has been strong against the run, but not very effective against the pass.  The Chargers ranked 11th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed with 102.6 per game, but they ranked 31st in the NFL in passing defense, allowing 247.4 yards per game during the regular season.  This creates major concerns for the Bolts, who will face an Indianapolis team that relies so heavily on the pass to move the ball.

I think this game really comes down to the defensive play of both teams.  It’s obvious that both teams have done well on offense this season, but San Diego’s pass defense against Peyton Manning appears to be the most concerning factor in the game.  The way I see it, there is little chance that the Chargers can stop Indy’s passing attack on a regular basis and it will be difficult for the Chargers to keep up offensively with the way that the Colts’ secondary has played this year.  I’ll take Indy to win on the road tonight.

Take the Indianapolis Colts -1

Predicted Score: Colts 28, Chargers 20

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