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Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos NFL Week 4 Picks & Predictions

Written by Jimmy Boyd

boys broncos 10209 The 2-1 Dallas Cowboys head to the Mile High City to take on the undefeated Denver Broncos this Sunday in a Week 4 non-conference clash. Last week, the Cowboys capped off a victory over Carolina with Terence Newman’s pick-six and the Broncos destroyed Oakland 23-3. These teams have not met since 2005 when Broncos kicker Jason Elam hit a 55-yard game winning field goal on Thanksgiving Day. The Broncos have won the last three meetings, but the all-time series is even at five games a piece. NFL odds makers have Denver enduring its first loss of the season this week, listing the Cowboys as a 3-point favorite with the total set at 42.5.

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The Broncos have not gotten off to a 4-0 start since 2003 and that’s what they’ll be gunning for Sunday. Denver’s defense has looked good through the first few weeks but that was against some of the NFL’s worst offenses. We’re about to find out what the Broncos are really made of against Tony Romo and the Cowboys’ third ranked offense. One thing is certain, Denver must be able to stop a running game that has gone over the 200 yard barrier in each of its last two games. And Elvis Dumervil must continue to get to the quarterback just as he has the past couple weeks.

Offensively, the Broncos are fourth in the NFL in rushing yards with 484 yards and they must continue to run the football to grind out games as their schedule gets more challenging. Denver running back Knowshon Moreno leads all rookies with 184 rushing yards this season and his big play soeed could be the difference maker for Denver this week. It is worth noting that Denver is 17-6 against the number in home games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by six or more points per game on the season since 1992. Denver is winning these games by an average score of 26.6 to 18.6. If you think Denver can continue its home dominance against elite NFL teams, bet the Broncos at +3 at Sportsbook.com.

The Cowboys have won eight of their last 11 games against the AFC, but handling the Denver altitude is no easy task and neither is playing with one less day to prepare following a Monday nighter. Offensively, the Cowboys have been strong behind a dominant running game. But you can bet that the Denver defense is going to do everything in its power to stop that running attack. That means that the Cowboys may have to take to the air more often to win this one. That also means that Tony Romo is going to have to make smart decisions with the football, unlike he did against the Giants. The evolution of Roy Williams as Dallas’ No. 1 wideout is starting to make the Cowboys miss Terrell Owens’ presence on the field less and less. Williams had four grabs in Monday’s game and he is averaging a ridiculous 22.4 yards per catch. It could be more difficult for him to get free this week however, against a Broncos secondary featuring Pro Bowlers Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins. However, it is worth noting that Denver is 0-6 against the spread versus good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards per game over the last 3 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 15.2 to 35.0. If you think Dallas can cover the spread on the road, bet the Cowboys at -3 at Sportsbook.com.

*Note: Don’t miss Jimmy’s 5* 2009 NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year this Sunday in his NFL expert picks package!

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