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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers NFL Odds & Predictions

Written by Jimmy Boyd on October 14, 2009

lions pack 101409 The 1-4 Detroit Lions take on the 2-2 Green Bay Packers this Sunday at legendary Lambeau Field in a Week 6 NFC North Division battle. Last week, the Lions played well against the defending Super Bowl champs with Daunte Culpepper filling in for an injured Matthew Stafford, but it was not enough as they fell 28-20. The Packers are coming off a bye week and will be looking to get back over the .500 mark. These teams last met in Week 17 of last season. The Packers won 31-21 to cement the Lions as the first team in league history to go 0-16. This matchup has been completely one sides with the Packers winning 15 of the last 17 meetings to take a commanding 88-64-7 lead in the all-time series. NFL odds makers have listed the Green Bay Packers as 13.5-point favorites with the total set at 48.5.

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With Matthew Stafford listed as questionable for Sunday’s contest, Daunte Culpepper could get the start again. That might not be a bad thing when you consider that he has thrown 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last five games against the Packers. But I’m far less concerned with the Detroit offense and far more intrigued by the improving Detroit defense this week. Detroit has covered the spread in two of its last three games and it has done so with solid defensively play. Jim Schwartz coordinated one of the league’s top defenses when in Tennessee and he has already made great strides with the Lions. Detroit was last in total defense a season ago but it has improved to 22nd in the early going under Schwartz. The Lions certainly have a tough task this week against a Packers offense capable of exploding with their passing game. That means the Lions are going to have to apply pressure to QB Aaron Rodgers just the way the Vikings did in Week 4. End Cliff Avril will be one of the guys counted on to bring the heat. He has a sack in each of his last three games against divisional foes. It is certainly worth noting that the Lions are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or more points. If you think odds makers are giving Detroit too many points, bet the Lions at +13.5 at BetUS.

Green Bay’s offense has not been the juggernaut many expected after seeing the unit look like a well-oiled machine in the preseason. Aaron Rodgers has played well since a tough Week 1 performance, but he could play even better if the offensive line keeps him upright. The Packers have allowed an NFL-most 20 sacks, despite playing one fewer game than most teams. Injuries have been a factor but they aren’t entirely to blame. Green Bay has brought back veteran lineman Mark Tauscher to try to improve up front. If the line can give Rodgers time, he has proven over and over again that he can carve up secondaries.

As expected, the Packers have experienced some growing pains with their new 3-4 defensive scheme. Perhaps Aaron Kampman has had the most trouble adjusting. Over the past few seasons, Kampman had emerged as one of the premier pass rushing defensive ends in the league. The new 3-4 scheme calls for him to play outside linebacker and he only has one sack since making the move. Sometimes this position calls for Kampman to drop back into pass coverage and it’s just not a good fit. The Packers need him with his hand in the dirt rushing the quarterback. That’s when he is at his best. It is worth noting that the Packers are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games following a bye week and the Lions are 1-5 against the number in the last six meetings in this series. If you like Green Bay to win big at home coming off its bye week, bet the Packers at -13.5 at BetUS.

Jimmy Boyd scored the cash last Sunday with his NFL Game of the Month. Don’t miss a single winner in his NFL expert picks package this Sunday!

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