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NFL Odds: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Written by Steve Janus on December 25, 2008

dolphins-jets-122508 The New York Jets host the Miami Dolphins in a game with huge playoff implications for both teams. The Jets need a win here and a loss by the Ravens or the Patriots in order to win a playoff birth, while the the Dolphins simply need to beat the Jets to gain entry to the post season. This has been a remarkable season for the Dolphins, who finished last season at just 1-15. With a win this Sunday, Miami would be 11-5 in the regular season in 2008, the best one-year turnaround in NFL history. There are some concerns around the Dolphins however, as they’ve only defeated 2 teams this season with a winning record. They’ll gun for their 3rd, plus a trip to the playoffs at the Jets Sunday afternoon. At home, the Jets are 3 point favorites over the Dolphins with the total for the game set at 42 points.

Miami comes in to Sunday’s contest ranked near the middle of the pack in most major statistically categories. The Dolphins are scoring just over 21 points per game on 347 yards per game. They done an nice job of spreading the ball around, earning 118 yards per game through their running game and 229 yards pass yards per game. The real surprise for the Dolphins has been former Jet starting quarterback, Chad Pennington. Pennington took over signal-calling duties for Miami this season and they’ve been a better team for it. Many feel that his addition has been the biggest contributing factor to the Dolphin’s amazing turn around. Pennington is even sparking some support for MVP consideration. He’s completed 67% of his passes this year for 17 TDs, 7 INT, and a career-high 3,453 yards. The Dolphins have also benefited from solid play from their back field with Ronnie Brown and Rick Williams chipping in 859 and 609 yards, respectively.

The Dolphins’ defense got off to a slow start, but their play in the second half of the season has improved their number significantly. Miami now ranks 11th in the NFL in points allowed at 20.0 and 15th in total yards allowed per game with 328.9. The Dolphins have played exceptionally well against the run this season, allowing just 102.7 yards per game, good for 9th-best in the NFL, but their pass defense allows 226 yards per game, ranking them as one of the 10 worst defenses against the pass. They’ll face a New York team that has been pretty successful moving the ball and scoring points this season, but is also a team that has seemingly lost their composure on offense for over a month now. The Dolphins are 3 point underdogs on the road this week.

The New York Jets have had an up and down season on offense this season, and though the ups do outweigh the downs overall, they have not played particularly well recently. On the season the Jets are putting up 26 points per game on a modest 332 yards per game, but have only scored an average of 16 points and gained an average of 273 yards per game in their last 3 games. The addition of Brett Favre seems to have helped the running game more than anything else, opening up more rushing opportunities and giving the Jets 128 yards per game (9th-best in the NFL) on 4.8 yards per carry (3rd-best in the NFL). Passing the ball, Favre has certainly had his fair share of mistakes, but he does have 21 TDs to his 19 INTs and 3,239 passing yards this season. The real star of this offense has been running back Thomas Jones, the AFC’s leading rusher with 1,289 yards and 15 total touchdowns on the year. Jones will square off against one of the better run defenses in the league, but I don’t expect them to limit his carries whatsoever. For the Jets to win, Jones needs to have another excellent game.

New York’s overall defense ranks right in the middle of the NFL. The Jets are similar to the Dolphins in that their run defense has enjoyed a ton of success this season, ranking 7th in the NFL by allowing only 93 rushing yards per game, but their pass offense hasn’t been able to keep pace. New York’s secondary has allowed 237 passing yards per game, ranking them just 29th in pass defense in the NFL. That’s a scary prospect considering that one of the leagues most accurate passers will be coming to town, but you have to think that the defense will be playing at their highest level considering what’s at stake in this game. Bet the Jets -3 Sunday.

The Dolphins are hot at the right time. They’ve won 10 games already this season and 4 games in a row, no small feat in today’s NFL. The Jets need to win and they need to win now, but the way they’ve been playing lately it’s not going to be easy. It’s not that New York lacks talent, it’s just that they’ve turned the ball over and have failed to consistently execute on offense. They need Favre to be a leader in this game and attach some real emotion to this game. The Jets have played almost nonchalantly of late, and that simply won’t cut it against the playoff-hungry Dolphins.

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