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Dolphins at Rams NFL Odds & Picks

Written by Steve Janus on November 28, 2008

The Dolphins and Rams haven’t met since 2004, but they square off this Sunday in St. Louis. Miami’s playoff hopes are on the line, while the Rams just need a win period. St. Louis has lost five games in a row, in embarrassing fashion, bringing their season record to just 2-9. The Dolphins sit at 6-5 on the year, but they have a tough string of road games ahead, starting here against the Rams. The Dolphins are favored by 8.5 points over the Rams and the total is set for 45 points.

Offensively, the Dolphins have been pretty solid across the board. They’ve put up 21.5 points per game on 112 yards rushing and 245 yards passing per game. Miami started to run the “Wildcat” formation several weeks ago and while it yielded some impressive results at first, it seems like opposing defenses have picked up on the gimmick, which has rendered it far less effective. You have to give it up for the Dolphins though, who nearly lost every game last season, but revamped the offense enough to be a playoff contender in 2008.

Where defense had been a strength of past Dolphins’ teams, this year doesn’t hold true to that form. Most of the players from that great defense are gone and now it’s a bit of a weakness for the team. Miami gives up just over 22 points per game and they are giving up over 330 yards of total offense. They’ve been solid against the run, allowing just 94 rushing yards on average, but the pass defense has been lacking, particularly on the road. This week the Dolphins face a St. Louis offense that hasn’t had much success, so maybe Miami can improve on their defensive numbers this week. Bet Miami -8.5 at BetUS.com!

The St. Louis Rams’ offense has been downright ugly this season. They are posting a meager 13.4 points per game and only gaining 265 yards of total offense per game. The lack of a running game (just 88 yards per game) has really hurt the passing game as well. The Rams are putting up only 177 yards per game through the air. The Rams have also struggled with holding on to the football, averaging a -0.6 turnover difference per game. That means the Rams turn the ball over nearly one time more per game than they are able to take the ball away from their opponents.

From the bad Rams’ offense we move to the defense, which may be even worse. The Rams allow a staggering 31.3 points per game on 387 yards of total offense. Their run defense has been particularly ineffective, allowing 162 yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry. Numbers like those are reserved for the worst teams in the NFL, and, as you might expect, the Rams are playing like one of, if not the, worst teams in the NFL. They aren’t facing a high-flying Miami offense this week, but this is a Dolphins team that likes to run the football and unfortunately the Rams do not hold up very well against the run. The Rams are 8.5 point home underdogs this weekend.

This is a good spot for the Dolphins to come out and get another win under their belt to gain some confidence for the home stretch. There’s nothing going right for St. Louis right now and they really have no shot at any kind of post season play. The Dolphins should run all over the Rams this week, unless Miami totally breaks down.

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