College Football Odds: East Carolina at UAB

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This Friday’s UAB-East Carolina game has all the makings of a shootout.

College football odds makers have the home team, UAB, favored by 2 points in this game, with an over/under of 67.  While the Pirates are still in contention for a bowl bid, their recent struggles point to an overall breakdown heading into the home stretch of the season.

The Pirates (5-4) have one of the best offenses in Conference USA, averaging 36 points and 439 yards per game.  They feature an explosive passing attack led by Boston College transfer Dominque Davis, a gangly 6-4 gunslinger who is putting up over 300 yards per game through the air while leading the nation in touchdown passes with 26.  ECU runs just enough to keep the other team honest.  Senior tailback Jonathan Williams is a boom-or-bust runner with a couple 100-yard games under his belt this season, while Davis’s wheels have enabled him to lead the team with seven rushing touchdowns.  The receiving duo of Dwayne Harris and Lance Lewis are the heart of the offense as they have 127 catches and 17 touchdowns between them.  No matter what, they always seem to produce.

ECU would be the favorite to win its third-straight C-USA title if not for its atrocious defense.  The Pirates are fresh off a 76-35 shellacking at the hands of Navy and are now allowing opponents an astounding 41.3 points per game.  ECU’s secondary is porous, giving up 235 yards per game, but its run defense is even worse, yielding 221 yards per game and over five yards per carry. No matter the offensive style–option, spread or pro-style–the Pirates haven’t been able to slow it down.

This bodes well for UAB’s chances of staying in this game. The Blazers are just 3-6 on the year, but they have a recent history of playing ECU tough.  Last year, UAB held the Pirates to just 14 first downs and 325 total yards, but gave up a touchdown on kick and interception returns and ended up losing, 37-21.  Nine starters are back from that unit, so it should be familiar with the ECU scheme.

Offensively, UAB has been struggling for much of the year.  Outside of a 50-point effort against Southern Mississippi and a 34-point showing against Troy, the Blazers haven’t done a whole lot.  Quarterback Bryan Ellis has been playing okay of late, though, and there is a good chance he breaks out against the Pirate defense.  But the player to really keep an eye on is running back Pat Shed, who is two games removed from a 176-yard, two-touchdown performance against Southern Miss.  Shed has a bit of a burst and has to be licking his chops over the prospects of facing ECU’s sieve of a run defense.

Matt’s Free Prediction: UAB 45 – ECU 38 – Look for the Blazers to put together one of their best offensive games of the year, while slowing the Pirates downjust enough to get the cover and the win.

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