Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys Spread
The 4-1 Atlanta Falcons take on the 3-2 Dallas Cowboys at gaudy Cowboys Stadium this Sunday in a Week 7 NFC battle. Last week, the Falcons used a late defensive stand to help defeat the Bears 21-14. The Cowboys had a bye week. These teams last met in Week 15 of the 2006 season with Dallas winning 38-28 despite four touchdown strikes from Michael Vick. The Cowboys have won four of the last six meetings to take a 15-8 lead in the all-time series. NFL lines makers have listed the Dallas Cowboys as a 4-point favorite with the total set at 47.5.
The Cowboys have missed the playmaking ability of T.O. this season, but they may have finally found an answer in Miles Austin. Austin had a 250-yard day against the Chiefs and that performance has earned him the starting wide receiver nod over Patrick Crayton. Austin’s emergence couldn’t have come at a better time with the way Roy Williams continues to struggle. We find out this week if Austin is a one-game wonder or a name we can expect to hear plenty of week in and week out. Jason Witten is still one of QB Tony Romo’s favorite targets and he should be able to find more space to work with if Austin can continue to pose a threat down the field. His 422 catches since 2004 are the second most in the NFL among tight ends.
We expect to see a balanced attack from the Cowboys this week with Marion Barber seeing plenty of carries. He is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season and has always had a nose for the end zone. Since 2006, his 34 rushing touchdowns are the most in the NFC.
Defensively, I’m going to be watching Keith Brooking going up against his former team. He called Atlanta home for 11 seasons and he will be looking to show the Falcons what they are missing after letting him go. I expect him to play well Sunday. It is worth noting that the Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games following a bye week and 5-2 against the number in their last seven home games.
The Falcons are a perfect 8-0 when Matt Ryan has a passer rating of 100 or better. His rating was only 68.4 against the Bears last week and he will likely have to be better to come out of Dallas with a win. The good news is that the Cowboys defense hasn’t been particularly strong against the pass, allowing 251 yards per game on a 62.8 percent completion rate and a 6.9 yards per pass average. Dallas will have its hands full with Falcons Pro Bowl receiver Roddy White. Over the last two weeks, White has 266 receiving yards and three touchdowns. He and Ryan will be looking to carve up Dallas’ 26th rank pass defense.
Defensively, it’s all about stuffing the running game and getting some heat on Tony Romo. If that heat comes from John Abraham, it’s even better, as his teams are 13-3 when he tallies two or more sacks in a game. It is worth noting that the Falcons are 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.